Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T16:50:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc326…ffae crypto 68 markets active 2h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$237 (-25%) realized −$237 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate54%37W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$5
14 days+$1
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 83% −$236
crypto 8% +$4
tech 8% −$2
other 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -18.2% -26.0% 62% 38% -7.2%
≤30d 44 -7.5% -16.3% 52% 39% -7.8%
≤90d 68 -4.6% -13.7% 54% 41% -33.3%
all 68 -4.6% -13.7% 54% 41% -33.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 41% -33.3%
10% -22.0% 25% -39.7%
15% -29.5% 24% -45.5%
20% -36.4% 19% -50.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$12 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$237
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses37 / 31
Open positions0
Markets (closed)68 / 68
History coverage72d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 68 Trades
no open positions (22 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $352.50 Week of June 22 20 Jun 25 $27 +$3 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 25? Jun 25 $26 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 24? Jun 24 $24 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 24? Jun 24 $23 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 23? Jun 23 $20 +$3 +15%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $480 in June? Jun 22 $14 −$14 -95%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $510 in June? Jun 22 $8 +$5 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 20 $4 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$5 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 19 $9 +$4 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$7 +346%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +115%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $232 in June? Jun 02 $11 +$1 +13%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 02 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 02 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 02 $2 +$2 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $450 in May? May 30 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $435 in May? May 29 $4 +$10 +269%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on May 29? May 29 $6 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on May 29? May 29 $3 −$1 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET May 29 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C or higher on May 28? May 28 $6 +$4 +69%
Will Chengdu Rongcheng FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on April 30? May 01 $54 −$37 -69%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on April 29? Apr 30 $2 +$8 +381%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on April 27? Apr 27 $34 +$5 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on April 24? Apr 26 $3 +$2 +91%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on April 24? Apr 24 $3 −$3 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $352.50 Week of June 22 20 BUY Yes 84¢ $4 1h
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $352.50 Week of June 22 20 BUY Yes 90¢ $22 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 25? SELL Yes 100¢ $27 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 25? BUY Yes 98¢ $26 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $10 11h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 24? BUY No 96¢ $24 33h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 24? SELL No 100¢ $24 33h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 24? BUY No 97¢ $23 40h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 23? BUY No 86¢ $20 2d
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $480 in June? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $510 in June? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $15 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $14 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $9 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $2 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $2 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 211 history records