Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:37:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc327…d803 weather 406 markets active 0h ago coverage 36d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 36d only
✗ bot/MM pace (91 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$283 (+3%) realized +$253 · open +$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate40%153W / 233L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day90.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$211now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$47
7 days+$148
14 days+$148
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$85
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (91 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 112 -16.8% -24.7% 45% 32% -3.9%
≤30d 324 -8.8% -17.5% 42% 31% -9.6%
≤90d 386 -6.3% -15.2% 40% 29% -8.9%
all 386 -6.3% -15.2% 40% 29% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover90.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.2% 29% -8.9%
10% ← realistic here -23.3% 23% -17.6%
15% -30.7% 19% -25.6%
20% -37.5% 16% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$8 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$211
Realized+$253
Unrealized+$30
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses153 / 233
Open positions20
Markets (closed)386 / 406
History coverage36d ⚠
Avg bet$21
Trades / day90.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 386 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 23? Yes 24¢ 29¢ $40 $48 +$8 (+20%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 23? No 88¢ 94¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 23? Yes 18¢ 25¢ $18 $25 +$7 (+39%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 22? Yes 21¢ 28¢ $17 $22 +$5 (+33%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C on June 23? Yes 7¢ 18¢ $8 $21 +$13 (+169%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 23? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+50%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 22? Yes 9¢ 18¢ $7 $14 +$7 (+112%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 23? Yes 29¢ 32¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 23? Yes 20¢ 31¢ $7 $11 +$4 (+53%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 22? Yes 6¢ 7¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 22? Yes 12¢ 3¢ $6 $1 −$5 (-78%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 23? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+41%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 22? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+277%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C or higher on June 23? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+59%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-79%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on June 22? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-84%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 21? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-97%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 21? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 21? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 21? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on June 22? Jun 22 $44 +$5 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on June 22? Jun 22 $41 +$12 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 22? Jun 22 $30 +$6 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 22? Jun 22 $10 +$2 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? Jun 22 $8 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 22? Jun 22 $31 +$21 +68%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 22? Jun 22 $66 −$4 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 22? Jun 22 $1 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 22? Jun 22 $9 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 22? Jun 22 $12 −$10 -81%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 21? Jun 21 $12 −$3 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 21? Jun 21 $27 +$5 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 21? Jun 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 21? Jun 21 $23 +$5 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 21? Jun 21 $7 −$2 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 21? Jun 21 $5 +$3 +70%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 20? Jun 21 $24 −$12 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 20? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C or below on June 20? Jun 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 20? Jun 21 $125 −$71 -57%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 20? Jun 21 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 20? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 20? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 20? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 21? Jun 21 $1 +$1 +256%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $25 −$7 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 21? Jun 21 $32 +$57 +176%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 21? Jun 21 $5 +$8 +164%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $54 +$46 +85%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 21? Jun 21 $30 −$25 -82%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on June 21? Jun 21 $200 +$14 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 21? Jun 21 $11 +$14 +122%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 21? Jun 21 $4 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 21? Jun 21 $15 −$12 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 21? Jun 21 $4 −$3 -67%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 21? Jun 21 $4 $0 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 20? Jun 20 $36 +$76 +212%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $70 +$7 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 20? Jun 20 $37 +$6 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $63 +$50 +80%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 20? Jun 20 $19 −$14 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 20? Jun 20 $14 +$6 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 19? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $37 −$5 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $38 −$9 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $75 +$50 +67%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 19? Jun 19 $104 +$21 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $17 −$17 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 17? Jun 19 $4 $0 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 17? Jun 19 $9 −$8 -90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 23? BUY Yes 26¢ $0 16m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on June 22? SELL Yes 100¢ $28 35m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 23? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 42m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 23? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 42m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 23? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 43m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 23? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 43m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on June 22? SELL Yes 100¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on June 22? SELL Yes 100¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on June 22? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 23? BUY Yes 29¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 22? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 23? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on June 22? BUY Yes 89¢ $44 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 22? BUY Yes 86¢ $17 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 22? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 22? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 22? SELL Yes 9¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 22? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 22? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on June 22? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on June 22? BUY No 88¢ $11 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on June 22? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on June 22? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on June 22? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 22? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 22? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 22? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 22? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 22? SELL Yes 25¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $211.00 · official $211.01 (match) · 3500 history records