Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:30:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc327…31f5 world 294 markets active 0h ago coverage 240d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,109 (+5%) realized +$933 · open +$176
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate38%101W / 166L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day9.1pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$1,400now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$101
7 days−$391
14 days−$290
30 days+$371
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% +$104
other 27% +$739
politics 19% +$21
tech 4% +$11
sports 3% −$130
crypto 1% −$48
finance 1% −$46
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -25.8% -32.9% 21% 18% -23.3%
≤30d 81 +22.5% +10.8% 37% 33% -3.2%
≤90d 191 +32.5% +19.9% 41% 38% -7.1%
all 267 +20.9% +9.4% 38% 34% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.4% 34% -7.3%
10% -1.1% 33% -16.2%
15% -10.7% 29% -24.3%
20% -19.4% 25% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late +26% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$33 · ×1.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

240d coverage
Net worth$1,400
Realized+$933
Unrealized+$176
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses101 / 166
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions27
Markets (closed)267 / 294
History coverage240d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day9.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 27 History 267 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Waymo launch in Nashville by June 30 2026? No 31¢ 74¢ $78 $186 +$109 (+140%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 65¢ 92¢ $103 $148 +$45 (+43%)
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? No 45¢ 39¢ $172 $148 −$24 (-14%)
Will Waymo launch in Dallas by June 30 2026? No 19¢ 80¢ $28 $118 +$91 (+329%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 13¢ 30¢ $39 $92 +$53 (+135%)
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30? No 51¢ 87¢ $52 $88 +$36 (+70%)
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? No 64¢ 66¢ $74 $77 +$3 (+4%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? No 83¢ 90¢ $67 $72 +$5 (+8%)
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? No 55¢ 48¢ $72 $62 −$9 (-13%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 60¢ 38¢ $96 $62 −$34 (-36%)
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 57¢ 69¢ $46 $56 +$10 (+22%)
Will Kraken's valuation hit (LOW) $10B by June 30? No 62¢ 68¢ $50 $55 +$5 (+10%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $47 $47 −$1 (-1%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? No 44¢ 74¢ $26 $44 +$18 (+67%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? No 19¢ 35¢ $18 $33 +$15 (+82%)
Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $90B by June 30? Yes 50¢ 72¢ $19 $27 +$8 (+43%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 14¢ 8¢ $41 $22 −$19 (-47%)
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $50B by December 31? Yes 11¢ 17¢ $13 $20 +$7 (+56%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 23¢ 21¢ $19 $18 −$2 (-9%)
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.00 and $2.30 on June 30, 2026? Yes 6¢ 7¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+10%)
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $6.00 and $7.00 on June 30, 2026? Yes 10¢ 5¢ $14 $7 −$6 (-46%)
Will Baidu have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $73 $5 −$68 (-93%)
Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+20%)
Will Canva's valuation hit (LOW) $40B by June 30? Yes 40¢ 36¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $3.20 and $3.50 on June 30, 2026? Yes 6¢ 2¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-66%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 18 $91 +$31 +34%
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 18 $63 −$6 -9%
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 18 $42 −$26 -61%
Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June? Jun 18 $85 −$2 -3%
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? Jun 17 $20 −$2 -9%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $15 −$5 -33%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $104 +$15 +14%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 17 $42 −$10 -23%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 17 $118 −$52 -44%
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June? Jun 17 $186 −$45 -24%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 16 $114 −$71 -62%
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 16 $79 −$39 -49%
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 16 $58 −$32 -55%
Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in June? Jun 16 $172 +$18 +10%
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? Jun 15 $83 +$349 +419%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? Jun 15 $88 −$67 -76%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Will GameStop Q1 net sales be above $750M? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (LOW) $18B by June 30? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? Jun 15 $208 −$88 -42%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $132 −$132 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $75 +$20 +27%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $52 −$12 -23%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $106 −$106 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 15 $106 −$106 -100%
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June? Jun 13 $94 +$58 +62%
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? Jun 13 $131 +$140 +107%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 13 $45 $0 -1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $26 −$22 -85%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $800b on June 30? Jun 12 $59 −$51 -86%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 12 $55 −$22 -40%
Will Google have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 11 $47 −$16 -35%
Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $95B by June 30? Jun 11 $44 +$11 +25%
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $37 +$12 +32%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $83 −$39 -47%
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o Jun 09 $12 −$2 -13%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $143 −$26 -18%
US announces Cuba oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 09 $30 −$16 -54%
Will Florentino Perez win the 2026 Real Madrid presidential election? Jun 07 $130 +$19 +14%
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (LOW) $17.5B by December 31? Jun 06 $77 +$33 +43%
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $4.00 and $5.00 on June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $10 +$1 +6%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 06 $30 −$6 -20%
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Jun 05 $69 +$88 +127%
Will Morgan Stanley (MS) Q2 investment banking revenue be above $1.9B? Jun 05 $7 $0 -4%
Will Anthropic have the third highest private market valuation on June Jun 05 $27 −$12 -46%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 05 $48 +$57 +119%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on Jun 04 $25 −$3 -11%
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $7.00 and $8.00 on June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $0 $0 -41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY No 40¢ $8 4m
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY No 46¢ $12 54m
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY No 46¢ $4 54m
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY No 46¢ $11 54m
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY No 46¢ $12 54m
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY No 46¢ $24 54m
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY No 46¢ $12 54m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $17 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL Yes 10¢ $10 1h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 30¢ $57 1h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY No 45¢ $3 1h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY No 45¢ $17 1h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY No 45¢ $20 1h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY No 45¢ $9 1h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY No 45¢ $9 1h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY No 45¢ $20 1h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY No 45¢ $13 1h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL Yes 54¢ $93 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $16 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $31 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $9 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $30 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 38¢ $5 2h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 29¢ $12 9h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL Yes 10¢ $6 9h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL Yes 10¢ $3 10h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL Yes 10¢ $1 10h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $61 10h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $4 13h
Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $0 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,399.64 · official $1,399.66 (match) · 2315 history records