Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:03:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc329…067e other 126 markets active 0h ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$508 (+0%) realized +$509 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate19%24W / 101L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$905per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$892now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$12
14 days−$22
30 days+$874
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% +$752
politics 40% −$49
sports 8% −$206
world 2% $0
crypto 1% +$2
culture 1% −$2
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 17 +6.6% -3.6% 18% 6% -6.7%
≤90d 82 -14.5% -22.7% 9% 1% -9.6%
all 125 -3.3% -12.5% 19% 10% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 10% -9.1%
10% -20.9% 10% -17.8%
15% -28.5% 9% -25.8%
20% -35.5% 6% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,244) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -8% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$10 · ×6.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$892
Realized+$509
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses24 / 101
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)125 / 126
History coverage125d
Avg bet$905
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 125 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $893 $892 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $895 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 19 $213 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $3,005 −$3 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 13 $1,658 −$2 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $2,842 −$3 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,665 −$3 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $3,054 −$5 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $2,618 −$3 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,440 −$2 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $1,384 −$1 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $1,392 −$2 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $2,336 −$3 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 04 $499 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? Jun 04 $775 +$1 +0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $2,432 −$3 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $1,195 −$2 -0%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-13? May 21 $802 +$904 +113%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $2,134 −$4 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 09 $1,187 −$2 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $2,881 −$4 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 08 $2,003 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $2,283 −$3 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $1,840 −$2 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 07 $1,245 −$2 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $1,244 −$2 -0%
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 02 $1,125 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $1,142 −$2 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 02 $685 +$3 +0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $454 −$1 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $435 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $597 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $1,476 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $2,603 −$2 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $1,089 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $1,008 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $2,782 −$3 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $1,486 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $1,157 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $1,957 −$2 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $1,574 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $541 −$1 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 10 $1,241 −$1 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 07 $1,822 −$2 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 05 $709 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 04 $1,109 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 04 $423 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 03 $369 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $725 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 02 $730 −$1 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $373 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $216 17m
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $216 1h
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $213 23h
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $213 24h
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $234 41h
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $235 43h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $893 2d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,656 6d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,658 6d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,692 6d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,694 6d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,663 6d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,665 6d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,656 7d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,659 8d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,648 12d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,650 13d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,438 13d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,440 14d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,417 14d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,419 14d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $557 14d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $558 14d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $1,390 14d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $1,392 15d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,402 15d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,404 15d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $729 19d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $730 19d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $499 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $891.66 · official $891.66 (match) · 472 history records