Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:23:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

C3 0xc32c…6879 other 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 17d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$21 (-0%) realized −$21 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip

Net edge-13%after slip

Net WR69%break-even

Win rate69%18W / 8L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$152per market

Trades / day1.9pace

Kalshi-fit3%portable

Net worth$200now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$114

7 days+$251

14 days+$106

30 days−$44

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +69%

net ROI/market (all)-13.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	11	+10.4%	-0.1%	82%	82%	+3.4%
≤30d	26	-4.0%	-13.1%	69%	69%	-10.5%
≤90d	26	-4.0%	-13.1%	69%	69%	-10.5%
all	26	-4.0%	-13.1%	69%	69%	-10.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.9 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-13.1%	69%	-10.5%
10%	-21.5%	46%	-19.0%
15%	-29.0%	42%	-26.9%
20%	-36.0%	19%	-34.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 24% · top 2 40% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -1% → late -7% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$57 vs −$135 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.96 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage

Net worth$200

Realized−$21

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)69%

Wins / losses18 / 8

Open positions3

Markets (closed)26 / 29

History coverage17d

Avg bet$152

Trades / day1.9

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit3%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 26 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	72¢	72¢	$100	$101	+$1 (+1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	58¢	57¢	$50	$50	−$0 (-1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	Yes	58¢	57¢	$50	$50	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 28	$251	+$36	+14%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 28	$51	+$37	+73%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 27	$51	+$40	+79%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$201	+$22	+11%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$182	+$34	+19%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$101	−$100	-99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$202	+$76	+38%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$100	+$17	+17%
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$101	−$100	-100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$326	+$165	+51%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$201	+$24	+12%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$178	−$176	-99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$201	−$200	-100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$301	+$36	+12%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$101	+$60	+60%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$101	+$29	+29%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$101	+$40	+40%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$51	+$37	+73%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$101	−$100	-99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$101	+$38	+38%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$101	+$44	+44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$101	+$46	+46%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 12	$101	−$100	-99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 12	$201	−$200	-99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 12	$101	−$100	-99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 11	$603	+$251	+42%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	58¢	$51	1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	72¢	$101	1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	BUY Yes	58¢	$51	1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	57¢	$51	10h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	55¢	$51	10h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	87¢	$251	10h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	84¢	$182	2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	90¢	$201	2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	65¢	$101	2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	72¢	$202	4d
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	83¢	$101	4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	85¢	$100	4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	67¢	$224	6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$77	7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	63¢	$101	7d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$101	7d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	89¢	$201	7d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	87¢	$201	7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	89¢	$301	8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	62¢	$101	9d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	77¢	$101	9d
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	57¢	$51	10d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	71¢	$101	10d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	76¢	$101	10d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	72¢	$101	11d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	69¢	$101	11d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	68¢	$101	11d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	60¢	$101	15d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	81¢	$201	15d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	54¢	$101	15d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $199.83 · official $199.83 (match) · 50 history records