Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T11:46:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
C3 0xc32e…203d sports 448 markets active 9h ago coverage 248d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$4,052 (-10%) realized −$4,052 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate54%239W / 207L
Whale WR23%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$91per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$103est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$625
7 days−$500
14 days−$212
30 days−$212
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% −$1,463
politics 19% −$30
other 13% −$1,652
economics 5% −$2
crypto 1% −$23
tech 0% $0
weather 0% −$50
world 0% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +58.6% +43.5% 78% 78% -17.9%
≤30d 17 +13.1% +2.3% 59% 59% -11.7%
≤90d 17 +13.1% +2.3% 59% 59% -11.7%
all 446 +6.1% -4.0% 54% 52% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.0% 52% -16.8%
10% -13.2% 47% -24.8%
15% -21.6% 41% -32.0%
20% -29.3% 31% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 23% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +42% → late -29% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$57 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

248d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4,052
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses239 / 207
Whale WR (big bets)23%
Est. fees paid−$103
Open positions0
Markets (closed)446 / 448
History coverage248d
Avg bet$91
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 446 Trades
no open positions (48 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 AND Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $401 +$309 +77%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND Norway vs. France: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $284 +$316 +111%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 AND Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $193 +$147 +76%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 AND Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 AND Morocc Jun 25 $25 +$39 +154%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 0.5 AND Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Jun 24 $43 +$74 +172%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score AND Colombia vs. DR Congo: Jun 24 $21 +$21 +100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $2,243 +$800 +36%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $1,854 −$1,833 -99%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $379 −$373 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $425 −$418 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $11 −$11 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $420 +$320 +76%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $294 +$128 +43%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $33 −$33 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1,691 +$806 +48%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $319 −$315 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $261 −$189 -72%
AC Milan vs. US Lecce: O/U 1.5 Jan 18 $999 −$999 -100%
Cagliari Calcio vs. Juventus FC: O/U 2.5 Jan 17 $531 −$531 -100%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-01-17? Jan 17 $350 −$350 -100%
Liverpool FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 1.5 Jan 17 $50 +$23 +47%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-17? Jan 17 $100 +$19 +19%
BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 1.5 Jan 17 $100 +$28 +28%
Eintracht Braunschweig vs. 1. FC Magdeburg: O/U 1.5 Jan 16 $200 +$111 +55%
Hornets vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 113.5 Jan 16 $53 +$42 +78%
Hellas Verona FC vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 1.5 Jan 15 $506 +$248 +49%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 13 $22 −$6 -25%
Damac Saudi Club vs. Al Ittihad Saudi Club: O/U 2.5 Jan 13 $500 −$500 -100%
Al Okhdood SC vs. Al Kholood Saudi Club: O/U 1.5 Jan 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Sevilla FC vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 1.5 Jan 12 $199 −$199 -100%
Genoa CFC vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 1.5 Jan 12 $50 +$27 +54%
Liverpool FC vs. Barnsley FC: O/U 3.5 Jan 12 $10 +$2 +25%
Knicks vs. Trail Blazers Jan 12 $28 +$14 +52%
Hawks vs. Warriors Jan 11 $20 −$20 -100%
FC Internazionale Milano vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 3.5 Jan 11 $25 +$23 +92%
Nets vs. Grizzlies: 1H O/U 113.5 Jan 11 $23 −$23 -100%
FC Internazionale Milano vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 1.5 Jan 11 $200 +$98 +49%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 2.5 Jan 11 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-01-11? Jan 11 $14 +$20 +144%
Hellas Verona FC vs. SS Lazio: O/U 1.5 Jan 11 $30 −$30 -100%
Levante UD vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: O/U 1.5 Jan 11 $32 +$12 +36%
SC Heerenveen vs. Feyenoord Rotterdam: O/U 1.5 Jan 11 $107 +$25 +24%
SC Heerenveen vs. Feyenoord Rotterdam: O/U 2.5 Jan 11 $60 −$3 -5%
Spurs vs. Celtics Jan 11 $24 −$24 -100%
Mavericks vs. Bulls Jan 11 $20 +$14 +72%
Heat vs. Pacers Jan 10 $26 −$26 -100%
Valencia CF vs. Elche CF: O/U 1.5 Jan 10 $142 +$404 +284%
Atalanta BC vs. Torino FC: O/U 1.5 Jan 10 $227 −$86 -38%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-01-10? Jan 10 $10 +$14 +144%
Villarreal CF vs. Deportivo Alavés: O/U 2.5 Jan 10 $10 +$10 +96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 AND Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY 56¢ $401 8h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 AND Croatia BUY 23¢ $122 15h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND Norway vs. France: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY 47¢ $284 43h
Türkiye vs. United States: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 AND Türkiye vs. United Sta BUY 27¢ $43 2d
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 AND Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY 56¢ $193 2d
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 AND Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 AND Morocc BUY 39¢ $25 3d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 0.5 AND Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: BUY 36¢ $43 3d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score AND Colombia vs. DR Congo: SELL 68¢ $43 4d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score AND Colombia vs. DR Congo: BUY 33¢ $21 4d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 93¢ $3,043 4d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 68¢ $2,243 4d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 62¢ $1,854 6d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $379 6d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 8d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $323 8d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $11 9d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $420 9d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $421 9d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 69¢ $294 9d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $33 10d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $2,497 11d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $1,691 11d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 58¢ $319 12d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 14¢ $73 12d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $193 12d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 49¢ $65 12d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $3 12d
AC Milan vs. US Lecce: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 44¢ $999 160d
Cagliari Calcio vs. Juventus FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $531 161d
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-01-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $250 161d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1010 history records