Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:40:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc330…e776 crypto 131 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$15,521 (-24%) realized −$15,374 · open −$147
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%30W / 88L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$501per market
Trades / day48.3pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$5,313now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$13,155
crypto 34% −$2,791
sports 2% −$252
world 0% $0
finance 0% −$69
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-22.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 118 -13.9% -22.1% 25% 25% -36.8%
≤30d 118 -13.9% -22.1% 25% 25% -36.8%
≤90d 118 -13.9% -22.1% 25% 25% -36.8%
all 118 -13.9% -22.1% 25% 25% -36.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.1% 25% -36.8%
10% ← realistic here -29.6% 23% -42.8%
15% -36.4% 21% -48.3%
20% -42.6% 19% -53.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$597 vs −$387 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$5,313
Realized−$15,374
Unrealized−$147
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses30 / 88
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions9
Markets (closed)118 / 131
History coverage6d
Avg bet$501
Trades / day48.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 118 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $1,500 $1,484 −$16 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 13¢ $1,000 $1,080 +$80 (+8%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1,000 $1,026 +$26 (+3%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $500 $494 −$6 (-1%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $500 $490 −$10 (-2%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $255 $253 −$2 (-1%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $250 $245 −$5 (-2%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $255 $237 −$18 (-7%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? No 26¢ 1¢ $200 $5 −$195 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 72 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $4,011 −$1,660 -41%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $205 −$200 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,521 −$1,500 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 18 $127 −$120 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 18 $124 +$35 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 18 $251 −$240 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 18 $218 −$205 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 18 $105 +$225 +214%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 18 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 18 $211 +$2,869 +1359%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 18 $233 −$220 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 18 $328 −$310 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 18 $223 −$210 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1,425 +$1,990 +140%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $211 −$200 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 17 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $127 −$120 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 17 $11 +$100 +945%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2,514 −$2,487 -99%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $102 −$23 -22%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,010 −$34 -3%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $101 −$3 -3%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $101 −$3 -4%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$3 -28%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6,316 −$6,071 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $106 −$100 -94%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $254 +$236 +93%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$8 -78%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $36 −$35 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $935 −$210 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $35 −$33 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $219 −$210 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $316 −$316 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $721 +$213 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 14 $519 −$100 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $366 −$366 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2,031 −$2,000 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 14 $507 −$100 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $619 −$600 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $710 −$100 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $106 −$100 -94%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $205 +$905 +442%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $232 1h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $204 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 48¢ $1,686 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 26¢ $204 2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 52¢ $917 2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 53¢ $973 2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $809 3h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 16¢ $205 3h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $235 4h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $514 4h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $1,523 7h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $1,517 7h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $1,521 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $11 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $11 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $105 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $11 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $11 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $103 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $11 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $11 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $11 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $11 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $106 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $102 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $6 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $105 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $106 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $11 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,312.92 · official $5,312.92 (match) · 325 history records