Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:35:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
C3 0xc331…4a1d politics 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 283d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate46%17W / 20L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% $0
other 20% +$1
politics 18% $0
sports 14% $0
culture 10% $0
economics 2% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 9 +0.3% -9.2% 56% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 9 +0.3% -9.2% 56% 0% -9.2%
all 37 +0.2% -9.4% 46% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.01 per $1 lost it wins $3.01
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

283d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses17 / 20
Open positions2
Markets (closed)37 / 39
History coverage283d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 82¢ 81¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 85¢ 94¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 08 $1 $0 -1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $38 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $69 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $42 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $6 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $34 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $36 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $35 +$1 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $38 $0 +1%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Oct 02 $74 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Oct 02 $18 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Oct 02 $15 $0 -1%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Oct 01 $19 $0 -1%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Oct 01 $17 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 01 $2 $0 -2%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 01 $38 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 01 $19 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30? Sep 30 $7 $0 +1%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Sep 29 $21 $0 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Sep 29 $17 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 23 to September 30, Sep 28 $18 $0 +1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 28 $18 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Sep 28 $17 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 26 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 25 $19 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Sep 25 $19 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 19 $19 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 19 $49 $0 +0%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 18 $19 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 18 $3 $0 +4%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Sep 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 16 $28 $0 +0%
Will Ayo Edebiri win the Emmy for Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Sep 14 $31 $0 +0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 14 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 13 $30 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $8 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $38 1h
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 14d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 15d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 15d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 15d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $34 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $34 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $38 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $38 16d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 16d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 16d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 16d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 16d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $34 16d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $34 16d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $35 16d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $35 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $35 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $35 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $4 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $4 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 83¢ $35 18d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 85¢ $36 18d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 84¢ $0 18d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $17 19d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $15 19d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $4 19d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $36 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.17 · official $30.01 (match) · 145 history records