Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:55:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc334…6c90 crypto 292 markets active 0h ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$62 (-3%) realized −$63 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate53%154W / 137L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day7.6pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$22
14 days−$22
30 days−$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 55% −$45
sports 30% −$46
other 15% +$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 190 -1.0% -10.4% 54% 52% -10.5%
≤30d 198 -0.1% -9.6% 54% 52% -10.4%
≤90d 291 -7.9% -16.7% 53% 49% -11.7%
all 291 -7.9% -16.7% 53% 49% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 49% -11.7%
10% -24.7% 46% -20.1%
15% -31.9% 34% -27.9%
20% -38.6% 28% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$7 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$63
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses154 / 137
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)291 / 292
History coverage56d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 291 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 32¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$3 +29%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $10 +$21 +203%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
United States vs. Australia: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 20 $31 +$39 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$15 +141%
United States vs. Australia: Team to Take First Corner Jun 19 $30 +$14 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$13 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $31 −$31 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $52 −$52 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $10 +$8 +82%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $10 +$14 +134%
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $10 +$9 +93%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Team to Take First Corner Jun 18 $10 +$6 +60%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 18 $2 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$4 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $20 +$7 +33%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $20 +$24 +118%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$2 +48%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $20 +$19 +94%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $41 +$57 +139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 39¢ $13 4m
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 33m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 47m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 99¢ $31 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 32¢ $10 1h
Morocco leading at halftime? BUY Yes 43¢ $31 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $19 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $10 6h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $10 8h
United States vs. Australia: Team to Take First Corner SELL United States 100¢ $45 8h
United States vs. Australia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 44¢ $20 9h
United States vs. Australia: Team to Take First Corner BUY United States 67¢ $30 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $10 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $10 23h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $18 28h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $24 28h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $31 29h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 42¢ $10 29h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $10 29h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $51 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $2 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 44h
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 56¢ $5 45h
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 37¢ $5 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.86 · official $10.86 (match) · 763 history records