Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T01:17:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc337…5984 other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$61 (-15%) realized −$25 · open −$36
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$113now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$43
sports 25% −$7
politics 13% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-34.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -27.6% -34.5% 20% 20% -32.6%
≤30d 5 -27.6% -34.5% 20% 20% -32.6%
≤90d 5 -27.6% -34.5% 20% 20% -32.6%
all 5 -27.6% -34.5% 20% 20% -32.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.5% 20% -32.6%
10% -40.8% 20% -39.1%
15% -46.5% 20% -45.0%
20% -51.7% 20% -50.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$134 vs −$49 · ×2.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$113
Realized−$25
Unrealized−$36
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)5 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score Yes 52¢ 48¢ $99 $92 −$7 (-7%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Yes 16¢ 6¢ $50 $20 −$30 (-59%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 France? Jun 26 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $51 +$134 +262%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $52 −$50 -97%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $77 −$76 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $100 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 France? BUY Yes 5¢ $21 7h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 7h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 100¢ $185 21h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 26, 2026? BUY No 23¢ $52 21h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 37¢ $77 24h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 27¢ $51 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $112.53 · official $112.53 (match) · 10 history records