Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T19:20:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
C3 0xc339…828c other 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$17 (+2%) realized +$19 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate38%6W / 10L
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$796now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$38
7 days+$35
14 days+$23
30 days+$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% −$23
sports 14% +$95
crypto 8% −$22
world 3% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +24.0% +12.1% 38% 31% +10.8%
≤30d 16 +16.8% +5.7% 38% 31% +1.6%
≤90d 16 +16.8% +5.7% 38% 31% +1.6%
all 16 +16.8% +5.7% 38% 31% +1.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.7% 31% +1.6%
10% -4.4% 31% -8.2%
15% -13.6% 31% -17.0%
20% -22.1% 31% -25.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 74% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +50% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$10 · ×2.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$796
Realized+$19
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses6 / 10
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions24
Markets (closed)16 / 41
History coverage11d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? No 72¢ 72¢ $165 $164 −$1 (-1%)
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 19¢ $76 $78 +$2 (+3%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 15¢ $60 $65 +$5 (+8%)
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $41 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? Yes 31¢ 40¢ $25 $33 +$8 (+33%)
Will Australia be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? Yes 39¢ 42¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+6%)
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 41¢ 40¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 26¢ 36¢ $20 $27 +$7 (+37%)
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Conor McGregor 35¢ 34¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 37¢ 35¢ $23 $22 −$1 (-6%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 56¢ 56¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $24 $19 −$4 (-18%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+3%)
Will Mexico be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Cup? Yes 38¢ 33¢ $21 $18 −$3 (-13%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $18 −$2 (-9%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will Khamzat Chimaev fight Sean Strickland next? Yes 49¢ 36¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-27%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $15 $12 −$3 (-17%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $12 $9 −$3 (-21%)
Will Germany reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 36¢ 36¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 26¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $24 −$21 -88%
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 25 $7 −$2 -21%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $18 −$17 -99%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $7 +$4 +57%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 25 $5 +$12 +226%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 25 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $15 +$1 +7%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $11 +$20 +184%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $11 −$1 -10%
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 21 $18 +$73 +414%
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $18 −$8 -46%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$16 +158%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 17 $18 −$17 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? BUY No 72¢ $68 1h
Will Australia be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? BUY Yes 39¢ $31 1h
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? BUY Yes 31¢ $26 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $26 1h
Will Khamzat Chimaev fight Sean Strickland next? BUY Yes 49¢ $20 1h
Will Germany reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 1h
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 49¢ $4 1h
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 56¢ $20 1h
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 49¢ $37 1h
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $31 1h
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 41¢ $31 1h
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Conor McGregor 35¢ $25 1h
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 AND BUY 44¢ $24 7h
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? BUY No 72¢ $62 9h
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? BUY No 72¢ $35 10h
Will Mexico be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Cup? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 10h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 10h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 10h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $15 10h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 10h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $12 10h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $15 10h
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? BUY No 72¢ $1 23h
Will Mexico be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 23h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 10¢ $2 24h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 26¢ $4 24h
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 19¢ $4 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $796.12 · official $819.73 · 82 history records