Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:23:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C3 0xc33a…3da3 sports 439 markets active 1h ago coverage 122d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 121d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$76,325 (-8%) realized −$75,224 · open −$1,101
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate41%179W / 261L
Whale WR41%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,279per market
Trades / day26.8pace
Fees−$9,465est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$3,995now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 122d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$90,829
other 4% −$15,802
world 0% −$1,980
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -4.4% -13.5% 43% 43% -26.0%
≤30d 95 +5.5% -4.5% 40% 40% -19.2%
≤90d 323 +3.2% -6.6% 42% 41% -15.3%
all 440 -1.5% -10.9% 41% 40% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.8 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.9% 40% -19.3%
10% -19.4% 39% -27.0%
15% ← realistic here -27.2% 39% -34.1%
20% -34.3% 38% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 41% (≥$3,000) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -8% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,571 vs −$2,202 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$3,995
Realized−$75,224
Unrealized−$1,101
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses179 / 261
Whale WR (big bets)41%
Est. fees paid−$9,465
Open positions4
Markets (closed)440 / 439
History coverage122d ⚠
Avg bet$2,279
Trades / day26.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 440 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Ecuador 43¢ 36¢ $3,809 $3,145 −$664 (-17%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $495 $742 +$248 (+50%)
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 7¢ 1¢ $792 $107 −$685 (-86%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 Under 48¢ 50¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 261 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bulls vs. Raptors: O/U 226.5 Jun 21 $1,888 −$1,888 -100%
Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 236.5 Jun 21 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
Pacers vs. Bucks Jun 21 $1,592 −$1,592 -100%
Spread: Pelicans (-5.5) Jun 21 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
North Carolina Tar Heels vs. North Carolina State Wolfpack Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Asuncion 2: Nick Hardt vs Juan Estevez Jun 20 $96 −$94 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $4,291 −$4,214 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $1,507 +$1,463 +97%
Asuncion 2: Guido Justo vs Nick Hardt Jun 19 $35 −$34 -98%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $4,890 −$4,790 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $1,507 +$1,463 +97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $2,450 −$2,416 -99%
Spread: Canada (-5.5) Jun 19 $1,980 +$2,520 +127%
Spread: Canada (-3.5) Jun 19 $17 +$14 +83%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $2,311 −$2,277 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2,007 −$1,980 -99%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $2,011 +$2,114 +105%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1,617 −$1,584 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2,011 +$2,114 +105%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,508 +$1,523 +101%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $602 +$518 +86%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $234 −$228 -97%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,516 −$1,485 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $102 −$99 -97%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,009 +$1,667 +165%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1,118 +$1,848 +165%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1,509 −$1,485 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,002 +$648 +65%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2,009 −$1,980 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1,577 +$1,233 +78%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $977 +$911 +93%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $301 −$297 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $504 +$798 +158%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $120 +$241 +200%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $1,998 −$1,980 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $1,507 −$1,485 -99%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $507 −$495 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,512 −$1,485 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1,912 +$1,873 +98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1,098 +$3,169 +288%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $962 +$970 +101%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $507 −$495 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $1,504 −$1,485 -99%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2,215 −$2,185 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1,710 +$1,849 +108%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1,008 +$1,597 +158%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $981 +$718 +73%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 Jun 08 $485 −$478 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 43¢ $3,874 39m
Asuncion 2: Nick Hardt vs Juan Estevez BUY Juan Estevez 20¢ $96 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $4,291 6h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 50¢ $1,507 24h
Asuncion 2: Guido Justo vs Nick Hardt BUY Guido Justo 31¢ $35 25h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 31¢ $1,858 26h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 31¢ $1,010 26h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 31¢ $2,021 27h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $1,507 32h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $1,004 47h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $1,446 2d
Spread: Canada (-5.5) BUY Canada 44¢ $0 2d
Spread: Canada (-5.5) BUY Canada 44¢ $7 2d
Spread: Canada (-5.5) BUY Canada 44¢ $1 2d
Spread: Canada (-5.5) BUY Canada 44¢ $1,973 2d
Spread: Canada (-3.5) BUY Canada 54¢ $17 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $2,311 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $2,007 2d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 7¢ $814 2d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 48¢ $2,011 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 29¢ $506 3d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $1,112 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $2,011 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 53¢ $602 3d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $234 3d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 49¢ $1,508 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 32¢ $505 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 31¢ $1,010 3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $102 3d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $1,009 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,994.78 · official $3,994.72 (match) · 3500 history records