Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:16:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
C3 0xc33b…8fe0 crypto 72 markets active 6h ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$137 (-6%) realized −$137 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate60%43W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$31
7 days−$3
14 days+$10
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$134
other 2% +$46
world 1% −$20
sports 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +7.0% -3.2% 50% 50% -12.1%
≤30d 9 +1.2% -8.5% 67% 44% -6.5%
≤90d 9 +1.2% -8.5% 67% 44% -6.5%
all 72 -7.2% -16.0% 60% 39% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 39% -14.0%
10% -24.1% 24% -22.2%
15% -31.4% 17% -29.8%
20% -38.1% 10% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -30% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$18 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$137
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses43 / 29
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)72 / 72
History coverage119d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 72 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $41 +$31 +76%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 25 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$15 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $78 +$15 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$13 +51%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Mar 09 $94 +$20 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Mar 09 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Mar 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Mar 09 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Mar 09 $58 +$4 +7%
Will October be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? Mar 09 $20 −$6 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Mar 09 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Mar 09 $20 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Mar 08 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Mar 07 $30 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Mar 07 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Mar 07 $30 −$25 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Mar 07 $80 +$8 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Mar 07 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Mar 07 $50 +$10 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Mar 07 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Mar 07 $30 −$14 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Mar 07 $20 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Mar 07 $20 −$10 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Mar 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Mar 07 $20 −$7 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Mar 07 $20 −$5 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Mar 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Mar 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 10AM ET Mar 07 $80 −$30 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4PM ET Mar 07 $70 −$48 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Mar 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Mar 06 $10 +$4 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Mar 06 $30 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Mar 06 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Mar 06 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Mar 05 $20 −$4 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Mar 05 $10 +$8 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Mar 05 $20 +$23 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Mar 05 $20 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Mar 05 $30 +$14 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Mar 05 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 5PM ET Mar 04 $30 +$9 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Mar 04 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3PM ET Mar 04 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 12PM ET Mar 04 $50 +$11 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 56¢ $41 6h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 4d
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $28 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $28 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $26 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $37 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $26 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $28 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $26 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $27 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 56¢ $28 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $39 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 12d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $39 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $10 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $51 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $37 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $20 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $11 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $11 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $10 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $27 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $10 112d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $14 112d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 248 history records