Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:59:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C3
0xc33d…0d40
sports · 353 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$3,790 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$11,626 · open +$7,822
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$18,201
Realized−$11,626
Unrealized+$7,822
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses189 / 492
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$593
Open positions82
Markets (closed)681 / 353
History coverage6d
Avg bet$178
Trades / day551.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%
Chart Positions 82 History 681 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8,096
7 days−$11,626
14 days−$11,626
30 days−$11,626
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week? No 38¢ 85¢ $5,961 $13,266 +$7,305 (+123%)
Will "The Witness" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? Yes 41¢ 86¢ $339 $708 +$370 (+109%)
Will Morocco be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup? No 64¢ 68¢ $424 $451 +$26 (+6%)
Will Senegal be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup? No 79¢ 80¢ $420 $422 +$3 (+1%)
Will one person dissent the June Fed decision? No 83¢ 81¢ $304 $297 −$8 (-2%)
Set 1 Winner: Snigur vs Montgomery Snigur 58¢ 57¢ $289 $286 −$3 (-1%)
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 92¢ 93¢ $258 $261 +$2 (+1%)
Will Cameron Boozer be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Yes 33¢ 56¢ $130 $220 +$90 (+70%)
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 93¢ 95¢ $149 $153 +$4 (+2%)
Will Netherlands be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? No 90¢ 86¢ $161 $152 −$9 (-6%)
Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 81¢ 88¢ $105 $115 +$10 (+10%)
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. SSG Landers SSG Landers 40¢ 50¢ $91 $114 +$23 (+25%)
Will Turkiye reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 94¢ 96¢ $108 $110 +$3 (+3%)
Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2026 meeting? No 86¢ 98¢ $96 $110 +$14 (+14%)
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 75¢ 78¢ $105 $110 +$5 (+5%)
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 89¢ 95¢ $100 $107 +$7 (+7%)
Will Uruguay reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 94¢ 96¢ $92 $94 +$2 (+2%)
Will Ghana be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup? No 87¢ 93¢ $87 $93 +$6 (+7%)
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Robin Montgomery Daria Snigur 58¢ 59¢ $79 $80 +$1 (+1%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? No 58¢ 56¢ $78 $74 −$3 (-4%)
Will Brazil reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 80¢ 79¢ $64 $63 −$1 (-1%)
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 66¢ 70¢ $55 $59 +$4 (+7%)
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 88¢ 94¢ $53 $57 +$4 (+7%)
Will two people dissent the June Fed decision? No 72¢ 91¢ $44 $55 +$11 (+26%)
Will Germany be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? No 81¢ 84¢ $52 $54 +$2 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tōkyō Verdy win on 2026-05-24? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Will AD Tarma win on 2026-05-30? Jun 12 $4 +$7 +175%
World Championships: Austria vs. Germany Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will "180" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will San Jose Earthquakes win on 2026-05-13? Jun 12 $176 −$176 -100%
Will Nagoya Grampus win on 2026-05-30? Jun 12 $73 −$61 -83%
Will "Nemesis" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? Jun 12 $341 −$337 -99%
Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Pr Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will US Catanzaro 1929 vs. AC Monza end in a draw? Jun 12 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Córdoba CF win on 2026-05-02? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will EC Bahia win on 2026-05-30? Jun 12 $90 −$87 -97%
Will Utah Royals FC vs. Denver Summit FC end in a draw? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 12 $0 +$19 +7264%
Will Bolton Wanderers FC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 12 $30 −$25 -82%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-31? Jun 12 $8 −$7 -87%
Will CD Castellón win on 2026-05-15? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will FC Augsburg win on 2026-05-02? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Santos FC win on 2026-05-26? Jun 12 $3 +$53 +1676%
Will CD Mirandés win on 2026-05-31? Jun 12 $8 +$39 +467%
Will Toulouse FC win on 2026-05-03? Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Pr Jun 12 $528 −$540 -102%
Will Houston Dynamo win on 2026-05-16? Jun 12 $1 −$7 -1324%
Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. 1. FC Nürnberg end in a draw? Jun 12 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Gwangju FC vs. Gangwon FC end in a draw? Jun 12 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Virtus Entella win on 2026-05-01? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-03? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Brentford FC end in a draw? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Santos FC vs. CD Cuenca end in a draw? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Lens win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Kashima Antlers vs. FC Tōkyō end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC end in a draw? Jun 12 $17 −$7 -41%
Will CR Flamengo vs. CR Vasco da Gama end in a draw? Jun 12 $65 −$59 -91%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-05-31? Jun 12 $17 −$12 -67%
Will Club Libertad win on 2026-05-27? Jun 12 $120 −$120 -100%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Sunderland AFC end in a draw? Jun 12 $64 −$64 -100%
Will "Solo Leveling Season 2 -Arise from the Shadow-" win Best Animati Jun 12 $4 $0 +3%
Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2026-05-27? Jun 12 $18 −$5 -28%
Will Albacete Balompié vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol B end in a draw? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Club Libertad vs. Universidad Central de Venezuela FC end in a dr Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will CR Vasco da Gama vs. Paysandu SC end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Livingston FC win on 2026-05-01? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Hamarkameratene win on 2026-05-29? Jun 12 $121 −$78 -64%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jun 12 $36 +$85 +239%
Will Gibraltar win on 2026-06-06? Jun 12 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Wadi Degla SC win on 2026-05-21? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Club Aurora vs. CDT Real Oruro end in a draw? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2026-05-03? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will "Unchosen" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? Jun 12 $38 −$29 -76%
Will Club Olimpia vs. Audax CS Italiano end in a draw? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 73% −$1,978
culture 12% +$6,430
other 11% +$1,035
crypto 3% −$250
economics 0% +$6
world 0% +$3
finance 0% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Set 1 Winner: Snigur vs Montgomery BUY Snigur 55¢ $18 27m
Set 1 Winner: Snigur vs Montgomery BUY Snigur 56¢ $38 27m
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Robin Montgomery BUY Daria Snigur 58¢ $60 27m
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Robin Montgomery BUY Daria Snigur 58¢ $1 27m
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Robin Montgomery BUY Daria Snigur 58¢ $3 27m
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Robin Montgomery BUY Daria Snigur 59¢ $15 27m
Set 1 Winner: Snigur vs Montgomery BUY Snigur 61¢ $61 27m
Set 1 Winner: Snigur vs Montgomery BUY Snigur 58¢ $13 32m
Set 1 Winner: Snigur vs Montgomery BUY Snigur 58¢ $21 32m
Set 1 Winner: Snigur vs Montgomery BUY Snigur 58¢ $70 32m
Set 1 Winner: Snigur vs Montgomery BUY Snigur 58¢ $70 32m
Will South Korea reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 40m
Will South Korea reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 40m
Will South Korea reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 47m
Libema Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Magda Linette BUY Zeynep Sonmez 13¢ $1 1h
Will Netherlands be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? BUY No 87¢ $9 1h
Set 1 Winner: Sonmez vs Linette BUY Sonmez 1¢ $0 1h
Set 1 Winner: Sonmez vs Linette BUY Linette 52¢ $11 1h
Set 1 Winner: Cirstea vs Raducanu BUY Cirstea 1¢ $1 1h
Set 1 Winner: Cirstea vs Raducanu BUY Cirstea 1¢ $1 1h
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu BUY Sorana Cirstea 40¢ $34 1h
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu BUY Sorana Cirstea 43¢ $9 1h
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu BUY Sorana Cirstea 44¢ $53 1h
Libema Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Magda Linette BUY Zeynep Sonmez 53¢ $13 1h
Will Netherlands be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $43 1h
Will Senegal be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 26¢ $9 1h
Will Egypt be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 2h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 94¢ $37 2h
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu BUY Emma Raducanu 54¢ $65 2h
Will Netherlands be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $26 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 681 +29.6% +17.2% 28% 25% -26.4%
≤30d 681 +29.6% +17.2% 28% 25% -26.4%
≤90d 681 +29.6% +17.2% 28% 25% -26.4%
all 681 +29.6% +17.2% 28% 25% -26.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover551.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +17.2% 25% -26.4%
10% ← realistic here +6.0% 21% -33.5%
15% -4.2% 19% -39.9%
20% -13.6% 16% -45.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18,200.91 · official $18,200.91 (match) · 3500 history records