Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:07:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc341…c239 crypto 148 markets active 1h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$80 (+3%) realized +$75 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate43%61W / 80L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$722now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$164
7 days+$165
14 days+$180
30 days+$160
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 46% +$132
crypto 40% −$34
other 11% −$16
world 3% −$91
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-22.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -23.7% -31.0% 42% 33% +10.6%
≤30d 16 -28.8% -35.6% 38% 31% +8.7%
≤90d 30 -51.6% -56.2% 20% 17% -8.1%
all 141 -14.8% -22.9% 43% 28% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.9% 28% -10.2%
10% -30.3% 22% -18.8%
15% -37.0% 13% -26.6%
20% -43.2% 10% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$722
Realized+$75
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses61 / 80
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions7
Markets (closed)141 / 148
History coverage103d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 141 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $101 $157 +$56 (+55%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $150 $154 +$4 (+3%)
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Inner Circle Esports 52¢ 50¢ $158 $151 −$7 (-5%)
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG - Map 2 Winner OG 54¢ 60¢ $100 $111 +$11 (+11%)
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Vasco Esports - Map 2 Winner largadosypelados 60¢ 50¢ $100 $84 −$16 (-16%)
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Vasco Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship South American Series #1 Group A largadosypelados 80¢ 50¢ $103 $65 −$38 (-37%)
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026? Yes 18¢ 1¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Alpha Dominion Nation vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 Jun 24 $193 $0 +0%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Sashi Esport (-3.5) vs 9INE (+3.5) Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Sashi Esport (-9.5) vs 9INE (+9.5) Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Sashi Esport (-6.5) vs 9INE (+6.5) Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro Jun 23 $101 +$58 +57%
Valorant: FUSION vs LAZER (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Regular Sea Jun 23 $101 +$78 +77%
Piracicaba: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 22 $101 +$33 +33%
Joint vs. Golubic: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 21 $101 −$3 -3%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $19 +$11 +57%
Counter-Strike: ALKA vs ODDIK Academy (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A Jun 20 $119 −$6 -5%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $20 +$25 +124%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $10 −$10 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 26, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET May 09 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by April 30, 2026? May 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? May 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 09 $86 −$86 -100%
Over $3M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 30 $112 −$1 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 26, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Apr 28 $14 −$14 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 20, 1AM ET Apr 28 $8 −$3 -37%
XRP Up or Down - March 22, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Mar 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Mar 27 $11 −$2 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Mar 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Mar 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 22, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Mar 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 22, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Mar 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 23, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Mar 27 $13 −$4 -28%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 26, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Mar 26 $4 +$1 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 26, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Mar 26 $2 +$3 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Mar 26 $11 +$9 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Mar 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 26, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Mar 26 $10 −$3 -34%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 26, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Mar 26 $9 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 26, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Mar 26 $3 +$2 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 23, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Mar 24 $11 −$1 -13%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 20, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Mar 24 $4 +$1 +22%
XRP Up or Down - March 23, 10PM ET Mar 24 $22 −$1 -4%
Solana Up or Down - March 23, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Mar 24 $16 +$4 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 23, 10PM ET Mar 24 $18 +$2 +11%
Solana Up or Down - March 23, 10PM ET Mar 24 $35 −$2 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 23, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Mar 24 $5 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 23, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Mar 24 $7 −$2 -28%
Solana Up or Down - March 23, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Mar 24 $5 $0 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 23, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Mar 24 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - March 23, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Mar 24 $4 −$1 -15%
XRP Up or Down - March 23, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Mar 24 $9 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 10PM ET Mar 24 $5 $0 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Vasco Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick BUY largadosypelados 80¢ $104 1h
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Vasco Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY largadosypelados 60¢ $101 2h
Counter-Strike: Alpha Dominion Nation vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 SELL Alpha Dominion Nation 47¢ $194 4h
Counter-Strike: Alpha Dominion Nation vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 BUY Alpha Dominion Nation 41¢ $38 5h
Counter-Strike: Alpha Dominion Nation vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 BUY Alpha Dominion Nation 47¢ $102 6h
Counter-Strike: Alpha Dominion Nation vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 BUY Alpha Dominion Nation 46¢ $54 6h
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG - Map 2 Winner BUY OG 54¢ $101 7h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN BUY Inner Circle Esports 52¢ $160 13h
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Sashi Esport (-6.5) vs 9INE (+6.5) BUY 9INE 7¢ $1 21h
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Sashi Esport (-3.5) vs 9INE (+3.5) BUY 9INE 7¢ $1 21h
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 BUY Over 7¢ $1 21h
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 7¢ $1 21h
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Sashi Esport (-9.5) vs 9INE (+9.5) BUY Sashi Esport 5¢ $1 21h
Piracicaba: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi BUY Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida 75¢ $101 3d
Joint vs. Golubic: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Under 51¢ $101 3d
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 63¢ $101 3d
Valorant: FUSION vs LAZER (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Regular Sea BUY LAZER 56¢ $101 3d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 BUY Over 63¢ $19 4d
Counter-Strike: ALKA vs ODDIK Academy (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A SELL ODDIK Academy 49¢ $56 4d
Counter-Strike: ALKA vs ODDIK Academy (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A BUY ODDIK Academy 50¢ $59 4d
Counter-Strike: ALKA vs ODDIK Academy (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A SELL ALKA 50¢ $57 4d
Counter-Strike: ALKA vs ODDIK Academy (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A BUY ALKA 51¢ $60 4d
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 BUY Over 44¢ $20 7d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 1¢ $10 9d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 20d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 24d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 30d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 30d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 30d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $41 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $721.78 · official $721.78 (match) · 725 history records