Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:14:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc345…05d3 world 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$716 (-5%) realized −$701 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate55%27W / 22L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$272per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$104est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$1,485now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$568
7 days−$262
14 days−$448
30 days−$448
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% −$398
sports 32% +$189
other 21% −$486
tech 3% +$48
crypto 1% −$151
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-20.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -4.6% -13.7% 27% 20% -14.1%
≤30d 21 -20.2% -27.8% 24% 19% -16.6%
≤90d 22 -23.8% -31.1% 23% 18% -16.8%
all 49 -12.0% -20.4% 55% 18% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.4% 18% -15.3%
10% -28.0% 12% -23.4%
15% -34.9% 10% -30.8%
20% -41.3% 10% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$129 vs −$194 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$1,485
Realized−$701
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses27 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$104
Open positions2
Markets (closed)49 / 51
History coverage158d
Avg bet$272
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $1,200 $1,191 −$9 (-1%)
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $300 $294 −$6 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 19 $409 −$400 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $204 −$168 -82%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $205 −$200 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $138 +$362 +262%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $440 +$1,949 +443%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $614 −$394 -64%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 16 $205 −$200 -98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $205 −$200 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $410 −$380 -93%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $450 −$440 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $296 +$704 +238%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $627 −$620 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $662 +$48 +7%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $153 −$123 -80%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $152 −$150 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$12 -11%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $152 +$86 +57%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Mar 09 $10 $0 +5%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 03 $10 $0 +1%
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? Feb 28 $6 +$4 +67%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by December 31, 2026? Feb 28 $16 +$4 +27%
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026? Feb 28 $373 −$269 -72%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $452 −$347 -77%
US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026? Feb 28 $99 +$9 +9%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Feb 28 $1,168 +$38 +3%
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? Feb 27 $246 +$5 +2%
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026? Feb 26 $390 +$10 +2%
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? Feb 25 $197 +$3 +2%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026? Feb 16 $143 +$7 +5%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 01 $226 −$27 -12%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Feb 01 $171 +$29 +17%
US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026? Jan 31 $189 +$11 +6%
Will Baidu have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026? Jan 27 $445 +$48 +11%
US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026? Jan 27 $296 +$13 +4%
US strikes Iran by January 25, 2026? Jan 26 $100 +$6 +6%
US strikes Iran by January 24, 2026? Jan 25 $384 +$16 +4%
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? Jan 24 $440 +$22 +5%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jan 21 $50 −$13 -26%
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026? Jan 19 $505 +$45 +9%
US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026? Jan 18 $327 +$31 +10%
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? Jan 17 $139 +$10 +7%
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026? Jan 16 $171 +$16 +9%
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? Jan 15 $52 +$7 +12%
Solana Up or Down - January 14, 8AM ET Jan 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $307 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $1,211 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $306 42h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 5¢ $36 42h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 2d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $204 2d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $205 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $204 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $138 3d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 83¢ $30 3d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $34 4d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $205 4d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $205 4d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $205 4d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $205 4d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $205 4d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $205 4d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $186 4d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $205 4d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $30 4d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 4d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $308 4d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $225 5d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $225 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $627 6d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 93¢ $662 6d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? SELL Yes 6¢ $30 6d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $296 6d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $153 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $152 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,485.05 · official $1,485.05 (match) · 148 history records