Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:49:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C3 0xc34a…3253 crypto 70 markets active 10h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$196 (+1%) realized +$189 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate97%65W / 2L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$317per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1,138now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$82
14 days+$160
30 days+$160
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$187
economics 0% $0
world 0% $0
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +1.5% -8.2% 100% 0% -8.2%
≤30d 27 -3.0% -12.3% 93% 0% -8.3%
≤90d 64 -1.2% -10.6% 97% 0% -8.6%
all 67 -1.1% -10.5% 97% 0% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 0% -8.8%
10% -19.1% 0% -17.5%
15% -26.9% 0% -25.5%
20% -34.1% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$999) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$0 · ×34.4 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1117.87 per $1 lost it wins $1117.87
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$1,138
Realized+$189
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses65 / 2
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)67 / 70
History coverage94d
Avg bet$317
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $1,125 $1,132 +$7 (+1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Will Gold (GC) settle at <$3,800 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $1,125 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $1,115 +$9 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $1,089 +$26 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $1,089 +$31 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $1,076 +$13 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $1,045 +$30 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $1,042 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $1,029 +$12 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $96 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $923 +$9 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $1,003 +$16 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $998 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 31? May 31 $7 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 29? May 31 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 28? May 29 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 27? May 28 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 26? May 27 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 25? May 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 24? May 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 23? May 24 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 22? May 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 20? May 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 18? May 19 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 15? May 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 14? May 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 11? May 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 8? May 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 6? May 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 4? May 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 30? May 04 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 20? Apr 30 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 19? Apr 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 15? Apr 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 13? Apr 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 12? Apr 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 11? Apr 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 10? Apr 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 9? Apr 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 7? Apr 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 6? Apr 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 5? Apr 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 4? Apr 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 3? Apr 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Apr 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 1? Apr 03 $11 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $1,125 9h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $1,125 27h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $758 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $124 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $10 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $223 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $96 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? BUY No 97¢ $189 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? BUY No 97¢ $398 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? BUY No 97¢ $407 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? BUY No 97¢ $1,089 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? BUY No 99¢ $199 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? BUY No 99¢ $358 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? BUY No 99¢ $519 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 97¢ $1,045 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $1,042 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? BUY No 99¢ $1,029 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? BUY No 98¢ $76 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? BUY No 98¢ $10 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? BUY No 98¢ $10 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? BUY No 99¢ $923 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? BUY No 98¢ $412 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? BUY No 98¢ $572 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,137.51 · official $1,137.51 (match) · 157 history records