Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:48:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc34b…9296 sports 813 markets active 2h ago coverage 16d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 15d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (197 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$21,819 (+10%) realized +$22,460 · open −$641
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate45%421W / 515L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$282per market
Trades / day197.2pace
Fees−$3,258est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$6,801now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 16d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$67,470
other 1% +$57
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (197 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 586 -46.2% -51.3% 27% 26% -49.3%
≤30d 936 -11.7% -20.1% 45% 44% -20.5%
≤90d 936 -11.7% -20.1% 45% 44% -20.5%
all 936 -11.7% -20.1% 45% 44% -20.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover197.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.1% 44% -20.5%
10% ← realistic here -27.7% 41% -28.1%
15% -34.7% 36% -35.0%
20% -41.1% 31% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +49% → late -72% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$254 vs −$270 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$6,801
Realized+$22,460
Unrealized−$641
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses421 / 515
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$3,258
Open positions15
Markets (closed)936 / 813
History coverage16d ⚠
Avg bet$282
Trades / day197.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 936 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Fire Flux Esports vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - ESEA European Finals Playoffs Fire Flux Esports 66¢ 85¢ $900 $1,165 +$265 (+29%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 31¢ 32¢ $930 $975 +$45 (+5%)
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Team Falcons 57¢ 57¢ $905 $912 +$8 (+1%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Under 55¢ 54¢ $900 $875 −$25 (-3%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 51¢ 60¢ $400 $467 +$67 (+17%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Over 65¢ 70¢ $300 $323 +$23 (+8%)
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs Team Falcons (+3.5) Vitality 51¢ 73¢ $217 $311 +$94 (+43%)
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Max Holloway 70¢ 68¢ $290 $279 −$10 (-4%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Under 53¢ 51¢ $237 $228 −$9 (-4%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Vitality 69¢ 68¢ $137 $134 −$3 (-2%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 Over 52¢ 50¢ $137 $133 −$4 (-3%)
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs Team Falcons (+3.5) Vitality 44¢ 40¢ $103 $94 −$9 (-9%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 18¢ 28¢ $26 $40 +$14 (+53%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs G2 24¢ 0¢ $900 $2 −$898 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs INOX Division 56¢ 0¢ $139 $0 −$139 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: WW Team vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qualifier Playoffs WW Team 49¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 476 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Isurus vs Turma do Pagode (BO3) - CCT South America Se Jun 19 $212 −$212 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: ZeroZone Gaming vs The Otter Side (BO1) - LPLOL Regular Season Jun 19 $169 −$169 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $41 −$41 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs PARIVISION - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Map Handicap: 100T (-1.5) vs Lavked (+1.5) Jun 19 $19 −$19 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Dooho Choi vs. Daniel Santos (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 19 $428 −$428 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics Jun 19 $509 −$509 -100%
Kashiwa Reysol vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $437 −$437 -100%
Game Handicap: PARI (-1.5) vs Nigma Galaxy (+1.5) Jun 19 $16 −$16 -100%
Berrettini vs. Comesana: Match O/U 38.5 Jun 19 $282 −$282 -100%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 19 $256 −$256 -100%
Geneva Open: Raphael Collignon vs Casper Ruud Jun 19 $213 −$213 -100%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Top Esports (+1.5) Jun 19 $760 −$760 -100%
Counter-Strike: Galorys vs largadosypelados (BO3) - Circuit X Base Rec Jun 19 $604 −$604 -100%
Counter-Strike: BESTIA vs largadosypelados (BO3) - Circuit X Base Reci Jun 19 $300 −$300 -100%
Counter-Strike: Hashiras vs NEW VISION (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Jun 19 $503 −$503 -100%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? Jun 19 $19 −$19 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 19 $828 −$828 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 205.5 Jun 19 $595 −$595 -100%
Map Handicap: FOKUS (-1.5) vs Ursa (+1.5) Jun 19 $182 −$182 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs Walczaki (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series Jun 19 $121 −$121 -100%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Astralis - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $278 −$278 -100%
LoL: GIANTX vs Solary - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $107 −$107 -100%
Map Handicap: URSA (-1.5) vs ex-Zero Tenacity (+1.5) Jun 19 $61 −$61 -100%
Game Handicap: DK (-1.5) vs Nongshim Red Force (+1.5) Jun 19 $39 −$39 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $34 −$34 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Ugo Humbert vs Dino Prizmic Jun 19 $439 −$439 -100%
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs MIR (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Group C Jun 19 $341 −$341 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 19 $336 −$336 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Mi Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs TYLOO (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group A Jun 19 $700 −$700 -100%
Will Mirassol FC win on 2026-05-19? Jun 19 $387 −$387 -100%
LoL: GIANTX vs Solary (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Playoff Jun 19 $173 −$173 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $377 −$377 -100%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs ex-HEROIC - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $602 −$602 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs Astralis (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B Jun 19 $70 −$70 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 19 $193 −$193 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $226 −$226 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $94 −$94 -100%
Bengaluru 3: Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong vs Yusuke Takahashi Jun 19 $600 −$600 -100%
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Racing Club vs. Caracas FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $574 −$574 -100%
Counter-Strike: Donstu Esports vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advan Jun 19 $38 −$38 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Game Handicap: BRO (-1.5) vs DN SOOPers (+1.5) Jun 19 $924 −$924 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Ka Jun 19 $600 −$600 -100%
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs HANJIN BRION Challengers (BO3) - LCK Ch Jun 19 $116 −$116 -100%
Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $359 −$359 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Set Handicap: Medvedev (-1.5) vs Altmaier (+1.5) SELL Altmaier 99¢ $246 1h
Set Handicap: Medvedev (-1.5) vs Altmaier (+1.5) SELL Altmaier 99¢ $50 1h
Set Handicap: Medvedev (-1.5) vs Altmaier (+1.5) SELL Altmaier 99¢ $1 1h
Set Handicap: Medvedev (-1.5) vs Altmaier (+1.5) SELL Altmaier 99¢ $564 1h
Set Handicap: Medvedev (-1.5) vs Altmaier (+1.5) SELL Altmaier 99¢ $14 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 69¢ $139 1h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 57¢ $916 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $226 1h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) SELL G2 100¢ $1,665 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $185 2h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $6 2h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $30 2h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $48 2h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $12 2h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $6 2h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $11 2h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $1 2h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $79 2h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $23 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 31¢ $930 2h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $2 2h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $3 2h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $119 2h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $37 3h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $8 3h
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Viktorija Golubic BUY Ann Li 54¢ $923 3h
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Viktorija Golubic BUY Ann Li 53¢ $6 3h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $4 3h
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Viktorija Golubic BUY Ann Li 53¢ $1 3h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $61 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,800.94 · official $6,906.57 · 3500 history records