Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T04:22:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc34b…d77e other 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 418d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,484 (-46%) realized −$3,484 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate27%13W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$155per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$65
7 days−$65
14 days−$351
30 days−$493
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 78% −$3,195
other 14% −$41
sports 7% −$296
crypto 1% −$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-34.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 23 -21.8% -29.3% 26% 26% -36.6%
≤90d 23 -21.8% -29.3% 26% 26% -36.6%
all 48 -28.1% -34.9% 27% 25% -52.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.9% 25% -52.8%
10% -41.2% 25% -57.3%
15% -46.8% 23% -61.4%
20% -52.1% 12% -65.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -48% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -34% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$134 vs −$152 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

418d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,484
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses13 / 35
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage418d
Avg bet$155
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 48 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $66 −$65 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $165 −$165 -100%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 17 $59 −$4 -8%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $49 −$2 -4%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $58 −$57 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $37 +$15 +40%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $47 +$23 +48%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $19 $0 -1%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 14 $35 −$34 -99%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $29 +$71 +249%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $14 −$5 -32%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $133 −$8 -6%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $5 −$4 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $32 −$11 -34%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $82 −$32 -39%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $49 −$1 -2%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$48 +94%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $83 −$82 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $21 +$23 +106%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $60 −$59 -99%
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election by less than 10 Jun 04 $317 +$144 +46%
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election by between 10% Jun 03 $36 −$35 -97%
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 03 $256 −$252 -98%
Will Real Madrid win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 24 $124 −$29 -24%
Will PSG win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 24 $123 +$55 +44%
Will Bayern Munich win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 23 $36 +$15 +42%
Will Inter Milan win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 23 $18 −$3 -17%
Will Chelsea win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 23 $27 −$16 -60%
Will Man City win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 23 $48 +$3 +6%
Will Inter Miami CF win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 23 $11 +$3 +27%
Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 30–June 6? Jun 06 $58 +$46 +80%
Will Lee Jae-myung win Chungbuk State (충청북도) in the 2025 Korean Presid Jun 04 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea el Jun 04 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 60-65% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 35-40% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 04 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Lee Jae-myung win more than 65% of the vote in the South Korea el Jun 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 55-60% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 04 $144 −$144 -100%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 04 $72 −$69 -96%
Will Lee Jae-myung win Ulsan (울산) in the 2025 Korean Presidential elec Jun 04 $71 +$50 +70%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 45-50% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 04 $490 +$1,241 +253%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 50-55% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 04 $784 −$781 -100%
Will two total goals be scored in regulation time? Jun 02 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Inter Milan beat PSG in the first half? May 31 $36 −$35 -99%
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? May 10 $747 −$501 -67%
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? May 10 $2,866 −$2,786 -97%
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5? May 06 $62 −$43 -70%
Will Han Dong-hoon be the People's Power Party candidate for president May 02 $16 −$6 -38%
Will Kim Moon-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president? May 02 $17 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 37¢ $66 2h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $165 7d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $55 7d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 24¢ $47 7d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 57¢ $58 8d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 98¢ $52 8d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $37 8d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $47 8d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 29¢ $19 10d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 52¢ $3 10d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 52¢ $32 10d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 10d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $19 10d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AN BUY 19¢ $41 10d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 5¢ $10 10d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 7¢ $14 10d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $29 10d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $93 10d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $17 10d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 10d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 35¢ $3 10d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 35¢ $7 10d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 35¢ $10 10d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 35¢ $1 10d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 53¢ $32 10d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $32 10d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $65 10d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $32 10d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 48¢ $48 11d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? SELL Yes 26¢ $49 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 383 history records