Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:51:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
C3 0xc34c…cf02 crypto 68 markets active 1h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+1%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate74%49W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$11
14 days+$11
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$4
sports 4% +$11
other 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +116.3% +95.7% 100% 100% +95.8%
≤30d 2 +116.3% +95.7% 100% 100% +95.8%
≤90d 2 +116.3% +95.7% 100% 100% +95.8%
all 66 -0.2% -9.7% 74% 39% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 39% -7.5%
10% -18.3% 24% -16.3%
15% -26.2% 15% -24.4%
20% -33.4% 14% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +116% too few recent
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses49 / 17
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)66 / 68
History coverage103d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5 +$6 +119%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $5 +$5 +114%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Mar 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Mar 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 16 $1 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Mar 15 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Mar 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Mar 13 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Mar 13 $4 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Mar 13 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Mar 13 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Mar 11 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Mar 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Mar 11 $9 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Mar 11 $7 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Mar 11 $8 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Mar 11 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Mar 11 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Mar 11 $9 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Mar 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Mar 11 $9 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Mar 11 $4 +$1 +12%
Solana Up or Down - March 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Mar 11 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Mar 11 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Mar 11 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Mar 11 $4 +$1 +14%
Solana Up or Down - March 11, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Mar 11 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Mar 11 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Mar 11 $8 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Mar 11 $8 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Mar 11 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Mar 11 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Mar 11 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Mar 11 $17 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Mar 11 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Mar 11 $9 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Mar 11 $6 +$4 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Mar 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Mar 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Mar 11 $5 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Mar 11 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Mar 11 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 11, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Mar 11 $1 $0 +5%
XRP Up or Down - March 11, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Mar 11 $5 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Mar 11 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Mar 11 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Mar 11 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Mar 11 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Mar 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Mar 06 $1 +$1 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $5 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 45¢ $5 1h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $5 9d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $6 91d
Solana Up or Down - March 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $3 91d
Netanyahu out by March 31? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 91d
Netanyahu out by March 31? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $4 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $4 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 94d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $9 94d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $4 94d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $4 94d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $9 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $9 96d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 96d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $8 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $2 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $7 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $9 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $7 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $9 96d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $8 96d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.87 · official $14.87 (match) · 288 history records