Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T09:58:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C3 0xc34d…5461 other 224 markets active 2h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$331 (+3%) realized +$303 · open +$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +133% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +94% what you keep after slip
Net edge+94%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate61%133W / 85L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day15.9pace
Kalshi-fit4%portable
Net worth$178now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$288
7 days−$275
14 days−$39
30 days−$114
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$568
crypto 0% −$4
politics 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+110.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +305.9% +267.3% 75% 75% -49.7%
≤30d 55 +367.8% +323.3% 76% 73% -23.5%
≤90d 167 +162.9% +137.9% 65% 46% -16.4%
all 218 +132.7% +110.6% 61% 44% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +110.6% 44% -16.2%
10% +90.4% 36% -24.2%
15% +72.0% 31% -31.5%
20% +55.2% 29% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +133% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late +251% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$39 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$178
Realized+$303
Unrealized+$28
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses133 / 85
Open positions7
Markets (closed)218 / 224
History coverage107d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day15.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit4%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 218 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 17¢ 56¢ $48 $155 +$107 (+224%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 7¢ 25¢ $6 $21 +$15 (+244%)
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 25 $1 +$27 +2134%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 25 $7 +$80 +1086%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 25 $286 −$263 -92%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 24 $2 +$2 +76%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 23 $1 +$1 +150%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 23 $233 −$232 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $8 +$9 +119%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $29 +$89 +303%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $4 −$2 -48%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 20 $6 +$8 +130%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $5 +$2 +33%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $40 +$5 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $13 +$6 +46%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $3 +$4 +130%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $7 +$187 +2737%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $8 +$7 +95%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $3 −$1 -17%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $5 +$10 +200%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +68%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $8 +$9 +117%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $13 +$11 +86%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $0 +$2 +750%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -57%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $4 $0 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $1 +$101 +9110%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $1 +$5 +340%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $145 −$145 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $4 +$9 +204%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $7 +$26 +357%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $0 +$9 +6969%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $3 +$2 +59%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $154 −$153 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $0 +$5 +1730%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $34 +$49 +146%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $1 +$5 +617%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $0 +$4 +3351%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $20 +$12 +61%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $9 −$3 -38%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $3 +$1 +30%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $143 −$143 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $13 +$119 +933%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 30 $6 +$4 +80%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 30 $1 +$2 +182%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 29 $117 −$117 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $21 +$108 +514%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $8 +$2 +26%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $5 −$1 -14%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 27 $18 +$13 +72%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 27 $9 +$7 +72%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 26 $107 −$107 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $22 2h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 2h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 2h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 2h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $6 2h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $32 2h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $3 2h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 3h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $37 3h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $17 3h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 3h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 3h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 3h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $2 3h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 3h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 3h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $2 3h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 3h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 4h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $2 4h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $2 4h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $3 4h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 12h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 12h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 13h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 15h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 15h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 15h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $177.75 · official $177.69 (match) · 2146 history records