Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:20:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C3 0xc34f…deae other 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 239d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3,269 (+6%) realized +$3,257 · open +$12
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate66%25W / 13L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$1,288per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$1,896now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$58
14 days+$58
30 days+$429
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 24% +$17
other 20% +$1,125
crypto 17% +$111
economics 15% +$1,518
tech 14% +$145
sports 7% +$376
world 4% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-0.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +1.6% -8.1% 50% 0% -8.1%
≤30d 6 +3.4% -6.4% 50% 17% -6.3%
≤90d 9 +3.9% -6.0% 56% 22% -6.4%
all 38 +10.1% -0.4% 66% 21% -3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.4% 21% -3.6%
10% -9.9% 8% -12.8%
15% -18.6% 5% -21.2%
20% -26.6% 3% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$1,888) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +22% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$144 vs −$67 · ×2.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×10.82 per $1 lost it wins $10.82
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

239d coverage
Net worth$1,896
Realized+$3,257
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses25 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions2
Markets (closed)38 / 40
History coverage239d
Avg bet$1,288
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 88¢ $1,879 $1,895 +$15 (+1%)
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes $4 $1 −$3 (-67%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $1,888 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 12 $1,828 +$58 +3%
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el Jun 03 $1,830 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 $1,809 +$19 +1%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $2,510 $0 +0%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $2,159 +$351 +16%
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? Apr 05 $2,158 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? Apr 02 $838 +$93 +11%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? Apr 02 $1,030 +$35 +3%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 13 $1,954 +$76 +4%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 22 $4,344 $0 +0%
Will Paradex launch a token by February 28, 2026? Feb 14 $422 +$50 +12%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 13 $3,037 +$1,359 +45%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in February? Feb 11 $1,213 +$7 +1%
Will ETHGAS launch a token by March 31, 2026? Jan 20 $240 −$238 -99%
Ethereum all time high by March 31, 2026? Jan 20 $1,646 +$112 +7%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Jan 19 $1,271 +$6 +0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Jan 15 $1,211 +$23 +2%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $5 mil Jan 13 $182 −$75 -41%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $6 mil Jan 13 $1,193 +$185 +16%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 m Jan 03 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 02 $16 +$1 +8%
Another crypto hack over $100m in 2025? Jan 01 $585 +$20 +3%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jan 01 $2,111 +$62 +3%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$8B one day after launch? Dec 26 $40 −$3 -9%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Dec 26 $87 −$11 -12%
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after January 2026 meeting Dec 24 $57 −$5 -9%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 m Dec 22 $2,832 +$88 +3%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Dec 14 $2,436 +$400 +16%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 14 $15 +$1 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in November? Dec 08 $158 +$15 +9%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 08 $1,766 +$522 +30%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Nov 23 $1,642 +$16 +1%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 08 $240 +$17 +7%
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 04 $10 +$34 +343%
Ethereum all time high by October 31? Nov 04 $1,546 +$51 +3%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Oct 27 $1,500 $0 +0%
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 22 $1,806 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $238 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $1,648 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? BUY Yes 97¢ $1,828 13d
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 99¢ $1,809 27d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 86¢ $2,159 73d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? BUY No 97¢ $295 96d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? BUY No 97¢ $735 96d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? BUY No 90¢ $16 96d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? BUY No 90¢ $17 96d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? BUY No 90¢ $805 96d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee SELL Yes 99¢ $2,030 96d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee BUY Yes 96¢ $1,954 115d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY Yes $4 120d
Will Paradex launch a token by February 28, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $110 123d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 95¢ $1,188 124d
Will Paradex launch a token by February 28, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $362 124d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in February? SELL No 99¢ $1,220 126d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 95¢ $684 126d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 96¢ $342 126d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 95¢ $548 127d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in February? BUY No 99¢ $1,213 129d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 96¢ $1,126 130d
Will Paradex launch a token by February 28, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $422 139d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 31¢ $108 139d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 28¢ $149 141d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 46¢ $236 147d
Will ETHGAS launch a token by March 31, 2026? SELL No $1 147d
Will ETHGAS launch a token by March 31, 2026? SELL No $0 147d
Will ETHGAS launch a token by March 31, 2026? SELL No $0 147d
Will ETHGAS launch a token by March 31, 2026? SELL No $0 147d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,896.11 · official $1,896.11 (match) · 180 history records