Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:25:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc34f…5f3b politics 66 markets active 1h ago coverage 275d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$26 (-0%) realized −$26 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%3W / 62L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$80now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$14
14 days−$13
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 53% −$6
sports 19% −$3
other 14% −$15
crypto 4% −$1
culture 3% −$1
economics 3% $0
world 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 2 -49.8% -54.6% 50% 0% -20.7%
≤90d 2 -49.8% -54.6% 50% 0% -20.7%
all 65 -7.7% -16.4% 5% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 0% -9.9%
10% -24.4% 0% -18.5%
15% -31.7% 0% -26.4%
20% -38.4% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

275d coverage
Net worth$80
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses3 / 62
Open positions1
Markets (closed)65 / 66
History coverage275d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $81 $80 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $14 −$14 -97%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 11 $92 $0 +0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 06 $100 $0 -0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 05 $92 $0 +0%
Will Olympiakos win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 24 $98 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 22 $93 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 20 $95 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 12 $93 $0 -0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 01 $96 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? Jan 29 $94 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 27 $194 $0 -0%
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 26 $1 −$1 -76%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 25 $188 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 23 $1 $0 -33%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 23 $92 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 22 $196 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 20 $98 −$1 -1%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 19 $198 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 17 $94 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 15 $96 $0 -0%
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 13 $1 $0 -50%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 13 $193 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 12 $1 $0 -11%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 12 $1 $0 -12%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 11 $93 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 09 $195 $0 -0%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 05 $1 $0 -50%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 04 $95 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 01 $94 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 29 $201 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 27 $191 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Dec 25 $1 $0 -50%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 25 $202 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 22 $56 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 21 $203 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 20 $1 $0 -21%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $98 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 14 $100 $0 -0%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 11 $97 $0 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 09 $70 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 08 $3 $0 -12%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Dec 07 $95 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 02 $99 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 30 $82 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 30 $1 $0 -14%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 29 $200 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 Nov 26 $99 $0 +0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 23 $101 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 22 $100 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 20 $104 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $81 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 5¢ $14 2d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $93 12d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $92 23d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 109d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 112d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $92 114d
Will Olympiakos win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 119d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $93 120d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $93 122d
Will Olympiakos win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 122d
Will Olympiakos win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 123d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $95 123d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $95 130d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $93 131d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $93 133d
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $96 142d
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $96 143d
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? SELL No 100¢ $94 145d
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $94 146d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $93 147d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $93 148d
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 148d
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 148d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $94 148d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $94 150d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 151d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $92 151d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $92 151d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 151d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.47 · official $80.47 (match) · 278 history records