Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:09:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc352…1028 world 81 markets active 1h ago coverage 482d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate36%29W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% $0
sports 19% $0
other 17% −$9
politics 16% −$1
economics 3% $0
finance 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-0.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +1.0% -8.6% 50% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 27 +40.7% +27.3% 44% 7% -9.5%
≤90d 71 +13.9% +3.0% 34% 4% -9.6%
all 80 +9.6% -0.9% 36% 4% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.9% 4% -9.8%
10% -10.3% 1% -18.4%
15% -19.0% 1% -26.3%
20% -26.9% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

482d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses29 / 51
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)80 / 81
History coverage482d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 36¢ 36¢ $38 $39 +$1 (+2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 48¢ 64¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $76 +$1 +1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $34 +$1 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $18 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $35 −$1 -2%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $1 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $33 +$1 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $45 $0 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $38 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $15 +$1 +7%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $33 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $14 $0 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $102 −$1 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $73 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $83 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 31 $34 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 31 $87 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $166 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 29 $74 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $34 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 28 $26 −$1 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $42 +$3 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 23 $19 −$3 -15%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $34 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 21 $79 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 20 $40 −$1 -2%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 17 $2 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 16 $82 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $40 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 15 $1 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 15 $2 −$1 -32%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 14 $9 $0 -0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $44 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $252 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $129 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $1 $0 -12%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 26 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $43 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 24 $89 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $78 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $81 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $81 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $3 $0 +1%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 19 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $1 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $48 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $46 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 13 $35 $0 -0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 12 $42 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $6 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 36¢ $38 1h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 75¢ $38 5h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 75¢ $38 6h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $24 15h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $10 15h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $34 18h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $16 20h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $16 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 84¢ $24 29h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 84¢ $11 29h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $24 30h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $11 30h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $38 30h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $38 33h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $20 4d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $14 4d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $15 4d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $18 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 28¢ $10 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 28¢ $0 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 31¢ $12 4d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $38 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.74 · official $39.05 · 377 history records