Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:40:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
C3 0xc356…ce69 other 6 markets active 3d ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$599 (-81%) realized −$599 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% −$548
crypto 8% −$55
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-40.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -34.1% -40.4% 50% 50% -86.7%
≤30d 6 -34.1% -40.4% 50% 50% -86.7%
≤90d 6 -34.1% -40.4% 50% 50% -86.7%
all 6 -34.1% -40.4% 50% 50% -86.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.4% 50% -86.7%
10% -46.1% 33% -88.0%
15% -51.3% 17% -89.1%
20% -56.1% 0% -90.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 88% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -85% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -85% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$209 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$599
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $600 −$573 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $38 −$35 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $22 −$20 -91%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $44 +$15 +34%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $19 +$3 +17%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $16 +$7 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $600 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $38 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $11 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $11 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $44 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $19 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $16 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 10 history records