Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:08:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
C3 0xc356…8052 crypto 19 markets active 2d ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$7,789 (+30%) realized +$4,164 · open +$3,625
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate56%10W / 8L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$1,355per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$16,275now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$130
14 days+$110
30 days+$233
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% +$3,747
other 6% +$139
sports 0% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -60.2% -64.0% 0% 0% -25.7%
≤30d 18 -9.6% -18.2% 56% 50% -1.9%
≤90d 18 -9.6% -18.2% 56% 50% -1.9%
all 18 -9.6% -18.2% 56% 50% -1.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.2% 50% -1.9%
10% -26.0% 33% -11.3%
15% -33.2% 17% -19.9%
20% -39.7% 17% -27.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 63% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$38 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.76 per $1 lost it wins $1.76
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$16,275
Realized+$4,164
Unrealized+$3,625
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses10 / 8
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)18 / 19
History coverage28d
Avg bet$1,355
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 36¢ 46¢ $12,650 $16,275 +$3,625 (+29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $602 −$27 -5%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $103 −$78 -76%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $866 +$244 +28%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $102 −$3 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET May 29 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET May 29 $26 +$30 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET May 29 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 28 $104 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 28 $207 +$18 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 28 $102 +$23 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 28 $203 +$26 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 28 $104 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 28 $104 +$95 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 28 $40 −$38 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET May 28 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 28 $105 +$81 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 28 $26 +$4 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 53¢ $575 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $602 2d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $26 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 3¢ $25 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 87¢ $265 9d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 49¢ $152 9d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 84¢ $844 9d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $713 9d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $1,716 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $244 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $2,046 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $39 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $3 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $309 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $3 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $830 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $64 11d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Ilia Topuria 24¢ $99 11d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 24¢ $102 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $106 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $0 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $929 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $639 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $0 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $0 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $0 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $585 12d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $265 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16,274.99 · official $16,274.99 (match) · 122 history records