Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T11:24:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc358…97b9 other 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$31 (-7%) realized −$31 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate62%5W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% $0
world 10% +$5
sports 9% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -12.6% -20.9% 62% 50% -17.1%
≤30d 8 -12.6% -20.9% 62% 50% -17.1%
≤90d 8 -12.6% -20.9% 62% 50% -17.1%
all 8 -12.6% -20.9% 62% 50% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.9% 50% -17.1%
10% -28.5% 25% -25.0%
15% -35.4% 12% -32.3%
20% -41.7% 12% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 72% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$33 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized−$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses5 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)8 / 10
History coverage3d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? No 89¢ 88¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $27 +$4 +16%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $49 +$5 +10%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $62 −$16 -26%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $80 +$19 +24%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $72 +$8 +11%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $44 +$27 +61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $29 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 89¢ $29 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 85¢ $27 11h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 90¢ $49 15h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $42 37h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $42 37h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 97¢ $41 37h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 37h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 78¢ $41 37h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 13¢ $4 37h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $21 39h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 80¢ $80 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $72 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $44 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.63 · official $57.63 (match) · 20 history records