Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:44:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
C3 0xc35a…6e99 sports 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 79d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-2%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 79d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% −$23
other 39% −$20
crypto 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-37.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -7.7% -16.5% 0% 0% -16.2%
≤30d 3 -7.7% -16.5% 0% 0% -16.2%
≤90d 6 -31.0% -37.6% 0% 0% -17.7%
all 6 -31.0% -37.6% 0% 0% -17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.6% 0% -17.7%
10% -43.6% 0% -25.5%
15% -49.0% 0% -32.7%
20% -54.0% 0% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$8 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 6
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage79d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $236 −$12 -5%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $201 −$20 -10%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $46 −$4 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Mar 31 $3 −$3 -98%
Pistons vs. Thunder: O/U 219.5 Mar 31 $16 −$2 -14%
Bulls vs. Spurs: O/U 245.5 Mar 31 $10 −$5 -49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 48¢ $109 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $115 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 48¢ $115 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $121 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 17¢ $92 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 17¢ $88 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 25¢ $43 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $98 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 78d
Pistons vs. Thunder: O/U 219.5 SELL Over 31¢ $3 78d
Pistons vs. Thunder: O/U 219.5 BUY Over 48¢ $5 78d
Bulls vs. Spurs: O/U 245.5 SELL Under 24¢ $5 78d
Bulls vs. Spurs: O/U 245.5 BUY Under 47¢ $10 78d
Pistons vs. Thunder: O/U 219.5 SELL Over 44¢ $10 78d
Pistons vs. Thunder: O/U 219.5 BUY Over 45¢ $11 78d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 17 history records