Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T18:24:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C3 0xc35b…6eb2 sports 152 markets active 0h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,898 (+4%) realized +$2,898 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate62%94W / 58L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$461per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$234est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$524
7 days+$694
14 days+$1,241
30 days+$1,241
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% +$3,009
world 7% +$2
other 6% +$260
crypto 1% −$199
culture 0% −$99
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +2.1% -7.6% 67% 48% -2.7%
≤30d 28 +2.7% -7.1% 68% 54% -2.2%
≤90d 94 -1.3% -10.7% 66% 51% -3.5%
all 152 -4.4% -13.5% 62% 45% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 45% -5.6%
10% -21.8% 16% -14.7%
15% -29.4% 7% -22.9%
20% -36.3% 3% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$90 vs −$97 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.54 per $1 lost it wins $1.54
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,898
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses94 / 58
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$234
Open positions0
Markets (closed)152 / 152
History coverage136d
Avg bet$461
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 152 Trades
no open positions (17 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 29 $301 +$115 +38%
Brazil vs. Japan: Brazil O/U 0.5 Jun 29 $200 +$38 +19%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 29 $1,001 +$86 +9%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $296 +$150 +51%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $150 +$44 +29%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $251 +$43 +17%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $251 −$6 -2%
Panama vs. England: O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $1,001 +$98 +10%
Panama vs. England: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $251 −$51 -20%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $601 +$62 +10%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $202 −$53 -26%
Norway vs. France: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $250 +$44 +18%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $251 +$43 +17%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $1,007 +$308 +31%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $1,003 +$133 +13%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $1,002 +$72 +7%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $351 −$25 -7%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $101 +$46 +46%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $402 −$52 -13%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $100 −$99 -99%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $301 −$300 -99%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $2,100 +$286 +14%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $1,000 +$237 +24%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $501 −$11 -2%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $500 +$69 +14%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $999 +$111 +11%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $500 −$211 -42%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $502 +$67 +13%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 1.5 May 19 $497 +$13 +3%
Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 1.5 May 16 $150 −$43 -29%
Eintracht Frankfurt vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 1.5 May 16 $201 +$19 +10%
SC Freiburg vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 1.5 May 16 $150 +$26 +17%
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 1.5 May 16 $200 +$20 +10%
Celtic FC vs. Heart of Midlothian FC: O/U 1.5 May 16 $199 +$48 +24%
Racing Club de Lens vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 1.5 May 13 $998 +$266 +27%
Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 1.5 May 13 $250 +$30 +12%
Motherwell FC vs. Celtic FC: O/U 1.5 May 13 $252 +$43 +17%
Villarreal CF vs. Sevilla FC: O/U 1.5 May 13 $251 +$36 +14%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 1.5 May 06 $2,921 +$245 +8%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 2.5 May 06 $437 +$62 +14%
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 1.5 May 03 $201 −$36 -18%
Manchester United FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 1.5 May 03 $251 +$46 +18%
Fortuna Sittard vs. Feyenoord Rotterdam: O/U 1.5 May 03 $150 +$28 +18%
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $101 −$16 -16%
Lille OSC vs. Le Havre AC: O/U 1.5 May 03 $101 +$29 +29%
PEC Zwolle vs. Heracles Almelo: O/U 1.5 May 03 $200 −$200 -100%
FC Volendam vs. SC Heerenveen: O/U 1.5 May 03 $102 −$1 -1%
NEC vs. Telstar 1963: O/U 1.5 May 02 $701 −$24 -3%
FC Metz vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 1.5 May 02 $33 −$7 -22%
Trabzonspor vs. Göztepe SK: O/U 1.5 May 02 $605 +$235 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $416 6m
Brazil vs. Japan: Brazil O/U 0.5 SELL Over 98¢ $238 6m
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $1,087 54m
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $278 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $222 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Brazil O/U 0.5 BUY Over 82¢ $200 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $150 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $150 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $501 1h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $445 21h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $296 22h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 79¢ $245 43h
Panama vs. England: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,099 44h
Panama vs. England: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 71¢ $200 44h
Panama vs. England: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $175 44h
Panama vs. England: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $826 44h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $663 44h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 52¢ $149 45h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 77¢ $150 46h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $202 46h
Panama vs. England: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 88¢ $251 46h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $250 46h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $251 47h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 85¢ $251 47h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 89¢ $351 47h
Norway vs. France: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $294 2d
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $294 2d
Norway vs. France: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 85¢ $84 2d
Norway vs. France: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 85¢ $8 2d
Norway vs. France: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 85¢ $8 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 573 history records