Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:15:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C3 0xc35f…f0e6 crypto 278 markets active 23h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$236 (-2%) realized −$218 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate43%111W / 147L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$154now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$3
14 days−$70
30 days−$163
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 33% −$23
other 21% −$64
world 21% −$17
tech 10% +$25
sports 7% −$206
crypto 6% +$31
weather 3% −$55
economics 0% +$29
culture 0% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -0.1% -9.6% 23% 23% -10.7%
≤30d 69 -4.8% -13.9% 32% 22% -17.3%
≤90d 200 -4.9% -14.0% 38% 30% -12.1%
all 258 -2.0% -11.3% 43% 26% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 26% -11.7%
10% -19.8% 22% -20.1%
15% -27.5% 18% -27.9%
20% -34.6% 16% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$7 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$154
Realized−$218
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses111 / 147
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions16
Markets (closed)258 / 278
History coverage149d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 258 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Vance announces he won't run for President in 2028 this year? Yes 9¢ 24¢ $15 $39 +$24 (+161%)
Will J.D. Vance announce a presidential run before 2027? Yes 9¢ 16¢ $15 $27 +$12 (+78%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+11%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $22 $15 −$7 (-32%)
Will OpenAI announce a phone in 2026? Yes 28¢ 14¢ $28 $14 −$14 (-48%)
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 6¢ 8¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+25%)
Will Cătălin Predoiu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 11¢ 5¢ $25 $10 −$15 (-59%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 10¢ 4¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-58%)
Will Elena Lasconi be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-25%)
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 3¢ 8¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+155%)
Will Victor Ponta be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-72%)
Will Dacian Cioloș be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-18%)
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $6 $1 −$5 (-86%)
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-87%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-76%)
Will Marcel Ciolacu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 16 $26 −$1 -3%
Will George Simion be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 15 $6 +$5 +92%
Will 3+ matches be suspended by weather protocol during the 2026 FIFA Jun 13 $14 −$2 -14%
Will 2+ matches be suspended by weather protocol during the 2026 FIFA Jun 13 $10 −$2 -23%
Will 1+ matches be suspended by weather protocol during the 2026 FIFA Jun 13 $5 −$1 -21%
Will João Cancelo be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 13 $3 $0 -10%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $30 +$7 +24%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $19 +$24 +122%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $31 −$2 -6%
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $51 −$1 -2%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $31 −$2 -5%
Will Drake have 3+ albums in the Billboard 200 top 10? Jun 07 $14 −$14 -100%
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House Jun 07 $21 −$2 -12%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $10 −$1 -8%
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $20 −$1 -7%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $52 −$4 -8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 07 $21 +$4 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 07 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 07 $21 −$10 -49%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 07 $31 +$19 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 07 $21 +$2 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 07 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 07 $21 +$4 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 07 $42 +$6 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 07 $31 +$9 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 07 $10 +$2 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 07 $10 +$1 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 07 $10 +$2 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 07 $10 $0 +3%
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $20 −$1 -5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 07 $10 +$1 +6%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $17 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 07 $10 $0 -0%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 06 $45 −$44 -97%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $32 −$2 -6%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $49 −$2 -5%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? Jun 06 $81 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 06 $2 +$1 +52%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 06 $100 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +25%
Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026? Jun 06 $22 +$6 +26%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs Jun 03 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 03 $14 −$14 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? AND Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16 BUY 2¢ $5 23h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? AND Will Iraq vs. Norway end in BUY 3¢ $5 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY 5¢ $10 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY 11¢ $10 23h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 13¢ $18 27h
Will George Simion be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 2¢ $7 2d
Will George Simion be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 2d
Will 3+ matches be suspended by weather protocol during the 2026 FIFA SELL No 63¢ $12 4d
Will 2+ matches be suspended by weather protocol during the 2026 FIFA SELL No 40¢ $8 4d
Will 1+ matches be suspended by weather protocol during the 2026 FIFA SELL No 21¢ $4 4d
Will 3+ matches be suspended by weather protocol during the 2026 FIFA BUY No 72¢ $14 4d
Will 2+ matches be suspended by weather protocol during the 2026 FIFA BUY No 52¢ $10 4d
Will 1+ matches be suspended by weather protocol during the 2026 FIFA BUY No 26¢ $5 4d
Will João Cancelo be in Portugal's Starting 11? SELL No 12¢ $2 4d
Will João Cancelo be in Portugal's Starting 11? BUY No 13¢ $3 4d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 82¢ $43 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 61¢ $36 5d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 6d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $11 6d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $19 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 36¢ $19 6d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 6d
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 17¢ $29 6d
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 28¢ $50 6d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $29 6d
Will Drake have 3+ albums in the Billboard 200 top 10? BUY Yes 1¢ $14 9d
Vance announces he won't run for President in 2028 this year? BUY Yes 9¢ $16 10d
Will J.D. Vance announce a presidential run before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $16 10d
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $154.24 · official $154.24 (match) · 994 history records