Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:31:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C3 0xc364…bb86 crypto 143 markets active 2h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,222 (+7%) realized +$1,222 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate58%83W / 60L
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$126per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$174now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$142
7 days+$142
14 days+$142
30 days+$373
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$710
other 1% +$226
world 0% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -28.6% -35.4% 50% 50% +6.1%
≤30d 17 -14.0% -22.2% 59% 53% +0.7%
≤90d 143 -10.3% -18.8% 58% 45% -4.9%
all 143 -10.3% -18.8% 58% 45% -4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.8% 45% -4.9%
10% -26.6% 38% -14.0%
15% -33.7% 36% -22.3%
20% -40.2% 34% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$72 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$174
Realized+$1,222
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses83 / 60
Open positions0
Markets (closed)143 / 143
History coverage87d
Avg bet$126
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 143 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET Jun 17 $152 +$24 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET Jun 16 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET Jun 16 $155 −$155 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET Jun 16 $466 +$324 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12PM ET Jun 03 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12PM ET Jun 02 $466 +$339 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11AM ET Jun 01 $157 −$157 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10AM ET Jun 01 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1PM ET May 30 $152 −$152 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2PM ET May 30 $414 −$414 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3PM ET May 30 $827 +$549 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 29 $51 +$19 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2AM ET May 28 $102 +$20 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11AM ET May 27 $52 +$46 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5AM ET May 27 $52 +$34 +67%
Will China announce participation in Iran negotiations by May 22? May 27 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4AM ET May 19 $102 +$16 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11PM ET May 18 $51 +$32 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12PM ET May 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1PM ET May 18 $154 +$113 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3AM ET May 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4AM ET May 16 $205 +$127 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6AM ET May 12 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7AM ET May 12 $138 +$95 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4AM ET May 09 $46 +$40 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11AM ET May 05 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12PM ET May 05 $155 +$156 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2AM ET May 05 $107 −$107 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3AM ET May 05 $321 +$168 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1AM ET May 05 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6AM ET May 03 $51 +$33 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10AM ET Apr 30 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11AM ET Apr 30 $113 −$113 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12PM ET Apr 30 $339 −$339 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1PM ET Apr 30 $536 +$157 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 3PM ET Apr 29 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4PM ET Apr 29 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5PM ET Apr 29 $308 +$244 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1AM ET Apr 27 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2AM ET Apr 27 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3AM ET Apr 27 $313 −$313 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4AM ET Apr 27 $697 +$403 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4AM ET Apr 26 $70 +$53 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4AM ET Apr 25 $35 +$31 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 11PM ET Apr 25 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12AM ET Apr 25 $104 +$63 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 7AM ET Apr 23 $30 +$21 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 5AM ET Apr 22 $50 −$3 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 4AM ET Apr 22 $30 −$4 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11AM ET Apr 22 $30 +$16 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $152 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $466 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $155 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $52 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $25 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $466 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $157 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $52 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $827 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $414 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $152 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $51 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $102 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $52 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $52 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $51 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $51 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $51 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $154 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $51 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $205 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $51 32d
Will China announce participation in Iran negotiations by May 22? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $138 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $46 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $46 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $155 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $41 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $321 43d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $174.42 · official $174.42 (match) · 373 history records