Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:41:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc365…18cf world 83 markets active 1h ago coverage 485d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$39 (+1%) realized +$39 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate40%31W / 47L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$114now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$1
14 days−$4
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 77% +$17
other 17% −$10
crypto 2% +$6
politics 2% $0
sports 1% +$26
tech 1% +$1
economics 1% $0
finance 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 38% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 28 -0.6% -10.1% 43% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 35 -0.5% -10.0% 40% 0% -9.2%
all 78 -1.5% -10.9% 40% 4% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 4% -8.8%
10% -19.4% 3% -17.5%
15% -27.2% 3% -25.5%
20% -34.3% 3% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.14 per $1 lost it wins $3.14
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

485d coverage
Net worth$114
Realized+$39
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses31 / 47
Open positions5
Markets (closed)78 / 83
History coverage485d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 81¢ 81¢ $113 $113 +$0 (+0%)
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? No 97¢ 98¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes 44¢ 48¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+8%)
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-78%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $101 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 17 $247 −$1 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $103 −$1 -1%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $103 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $103 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $114 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $113 +$1 +1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $21 $0 -0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 10 $102 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $215 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $59 −$3 -4%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $314 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $105 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $213 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $115 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 03 $300 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $115 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $211 +$9 +4%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 29 $97 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 29 $184 +$3 +2%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $7 −$2 -27%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 25 $199 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 25 $187 +$1 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $95 +$2 +2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 23 $211 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 21 $125 +$7 +6%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 21 $33 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 20 $72 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 19 $21 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 18 $10 $0 -2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 18 $78 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 16 $99 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 15 $6 $0 +0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $90 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 18 $19 +$1 +6%
Will Eduardo del Castillo win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft buy TikTok? Jun 23 $1 $0 +6%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 22 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Jun 17 $12 $0 +1%
Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? Jun 17 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? Jun 11 $12 $0 -0%
Will 'The Fantastic Four: First Steps' have the best domestic opening Jun 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 09 $10 $0 -0%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July? Jun 09 $2 $0 -2%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Jun 08 $12 $0 +0%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 08 $13 $0 +1%
Will the US add 200k or more jobs in May? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 05 $15 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 81¢ $113 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $57 8h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $43 8h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $101 12h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $33 26h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $33 26h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $12 29h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $90 29h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $103 34h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $103 2d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 98¢ $103 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $103 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $103 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $114 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $114 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 77¢ $114 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 77¢ $113 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $20 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $1 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 68¢ $21 5d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $5 8d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 8d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $10 8d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $47 9d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $45 9d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $102 9d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $112 9d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $113 9d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $103 10d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $102 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $114.27 · official $112.59 · 286 history records