Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:58:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C3 0xc367…85e2 crypto 287 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$120 (+3%) realized +$139 · open −$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate51%146W / 139L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day27.3pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$141
7 days−$178
14 days−$183
30 days−$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% +$86
sports 32% −$48
other 5% −$125
world 1% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 149 -13.4% -21.7% 44% 41% -15.0%
≤30d 285 -1.4% -10.8% 51% 48% -10.7%
≤90d 285 -1.4% -10.8% 51% 48% -10.7%
all 285 -1.4% -10.8% 51% 48% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.8% 48% -10.7%
10% ← realistic here -19.3% 45% -19.2%
15% -27.1% 38% -27.0%
20% -34.3% 34% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$11 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized+$139
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses146 / 139
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions2
Markets (closed)285 / 287
History coverage20d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day27.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 285 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 41¢ 28¢ $20 $14 −$6 (-31%)
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Belgium 37¢ 13¢ $20 $7 −$13 (-65%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$18 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$9 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $36 +$7 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$19 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $92 −$15 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $51 −$13 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $61 +$18 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $41 −$30 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$9 +83%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$7 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$15 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$18 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$10 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $36 −$5 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $51 −$9 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$15 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $41 −$6 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$14 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$5 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$12 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$15 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$9 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$21 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$7 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$3 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +78%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 15 $20 −$3 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$9 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$23 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$5 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$31 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $20 36m
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 37¢ $20 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Down 6¢ $3 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $21 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 73¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Up 11¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 79¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 16¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Down 5¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $79 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.93 · official $23.86 · 665 history records