Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:19:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
C3 0xc368…a3c4 sports 75 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$7,148 (+10%) realized +$6,811 · open +$337
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate45%33W / 40L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$929per market
Trades / day34.8pace
Fees−$926est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$625now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$3,546
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 -8.2% -17.0% 46% 42% -5.3%
≤30d 73 -8.1% -16.9% 45% 41% -5.3%
≤90d 73 -8.1% -16.9% 45% 41% -5.3%
all 73 -8.1% -16.9% 45% 41% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.8 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.9% 41% -5.3%
10% -24.8% 33% -14.4%
15% ← realistic here -32.1% 29% -22.7%
20% -38.8% 23% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$1,187) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$833 vs −$607 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$625
Realized+$6,811
Unrealized+$337
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses33 / 40
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$926
Open positions2
Markets (closed)73 / 75
History coverage9d
Avg bet$929
Trades / day34.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Rainbow Six Siege: 100 Thieves vs Shopify Rebellion (BO1) - North America League Stage 1 Group Stage 100 Thieves 22¢ 100¢ $140 $625 +$485 (+346%)
Rainbow Six Siege: For Fun Esports vs Outlast (BO1) - North America League Stage 1 Group Stage Outlast 18¢ 0¢ $148 $0 −$148 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $1,187 +$910 +77%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $3,341 −$3,319 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $470 −$464 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $2,031 +$2,202 +108%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $4,015 +$3,061 +76%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $1,510 +$405 +27%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $2,280 +$1,356 +60%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $1,018 −$1,000 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $484 −$479 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $161 −$161 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $363 −$363 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $305 −$305 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $176 −$176 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $834 −$834 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $1,018 −$1,018 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $615 −$615 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $4,144 +$3,712 +90%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $450 +$813 +181%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $3,044 +$2,887 +95%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $2,030 +$2,035 +100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $204 +$296 +146%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $898 +$104 +12%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $2,017 +$761 +38%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2,988 +$132 +4%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $595 −$595 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $3,371 −$3,371 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $2,401 −$694 -29%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $965 −$757 -78%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 17 $678 +$102 +15%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $246 +$1,561 +634%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $1,695 +$1,782 +105%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $82 −$82 -100%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $61 −$61 -100%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $160 −$160 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $508 −$508 -100%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $1,015 −$1,015 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $1,016 −$1,016 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu Jun 16 $1,602 −$1,602 -100%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin Jun 16 $691 +$310 +45%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $1,092 +$296 +27%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $424 +$91 +21%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $234 +$584 +250%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $528 −$528 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $493 −$493 -100%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $693 −$693 -100%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International Chin Jun 15 $870 +$130 +15%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,742 +$543 +31%
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S Jun 15 $102 +$103 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Rainbow Six Siege: 100 Thieves vs Shopify Rebellion (BO1) - North Amer BUY 100 Thieves 22¢ $102 47m
Rainbow Six Siege: 100 Thieves vs Shopify Rebellion (BO1) - North Amer BUY 100 Thieves 22¢ $41 47m
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 78¢ $58 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 78¢ $3,284 1h
Rainbow Six Siege: For Fun Esports vs Outlast (BO1) - North America Le BUY Outlast 17¢ $41 1h
Rainbow Six Siege: For Fun Esports vs Outlast (BO1) - North America Le BUY Outlast 18¢ $107 1h
Rainbow Six Siege: For Fun Esports vs Outlast (BO1) - North America Le BUY Outlast 18¢ $1 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 30¢ $642 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 70¢ $545 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? BUY No 60¢ $470 2h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 79¢ $503 4h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $1,007 4h
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 51¢ $1,015 4h
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 44¢ $1,017 5h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $4,015 5h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 38¢ $1,018 13h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 45¢ $253 15h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 60¢ $484 15h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 55¢ $2,027 16h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 41¢ $1,018 17h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $72 18h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $88 19h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 52¢ $933 19h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 52¢ $535 19h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 52¢ $1,070 19h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 52¢ $535 19h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 52¢ $1,070 19h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 62¢ $4 19h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 36¢ $19 19h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 36¢ $102 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $624.99 · official $623.74 (match) · 394 history records