Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:49:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
C3 0xc36c…b39d other 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,676 (-51%) realized −$5,379 · open +$703
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%2W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$707per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$70est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$2,103now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$2,868
sports 24% +$2,594
world 22% −$121
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-46.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -42.0% -47.5% 12% 12% -24.9%
≤30d 10 -41.0% -46.6% 20% 20% -22.3%
≤90d 10 -41.0% -46.6% 20% 20% -22.3%
all 10 -41.0% -46.6% 20% 20% -22.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -46.6% 20% -22.3%
10% -51.7% 20% -29.8%
15% -56.4% 10% -36.6%
20% -60.6% 10% -42.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 91% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -41% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2,071 vs −$655 · ×3.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$2,103
Realized−$5,379
Unrealized+$703
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses2 / 8
Est. fees paid−$70
Open positions3
Markets (closed)10 / 13
History coverage8d
Avg bet$707
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? No 33¢ 48¢ $1,000 $1,470 +$470 (+47%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Yes 12¢ 16¢ $300 $388 +$88 (+29%)
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 0 Croatia? Yes 4¢ 10¢ $100 $246 +$146 (+146%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $1,030 +$3,748 +364%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? Jun 23 $761 −$761 -100%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 1 Panama? Jun 23 $619 −$619 -100%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 23 $850 −$850 -100%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 2 Panama? Jun 23 $620 −$620 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $1,155 −$1,155 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $207 −$207 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $516 −$516 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $1,486 +$393 +26%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $514 −$514 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 4¢ $103 57m
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 12¢ $309 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 33¢ $1,025 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $3,727 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 43¢ $1,051 2h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $1,030 3h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 12¢ $850 3d
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 15¢ $761 6d
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 9¢ $619 6d
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 2 Panama? BUY Yes 8¢ $620 6d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1,155 7d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $516 7d
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 2¢ $207 7d
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? BUY Yes 90¢ $1,108 7d
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? BUY Yes 57¢ $378 7d
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 2 New Zealand? BUY Yes 25¢ $514 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,103.45 · official $2,135.95 · 26 history records