Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T23:08:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C3
0xc36d…3eda
sports · 135 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$528 -16%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$529 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$8
Realized−$529
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses46 / 88
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)134 / 135
History coverage232d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%
Chart Positions 1 History 134 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$99
30 days−$122
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 38¢ 46¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+20%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven Rico 10¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Genius FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 71¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs Fisher College (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage Fisher College 25¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Yes 69¢ 0¢ $99 $0 −$99 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: B8 vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A BC.Game Esports 37¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B Aurora Gaming 22¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 49¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Team Falcons 61¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Yes 65¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage TheMongolz 67¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $113 −$99 -88%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $19 −$19 -98%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 22 $9 −$9 -97%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? May 16 $10 +$5 +48%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 12 $24 −$15 -61%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 12 $27 −$27 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Group St May 12 $35 −$20 -57%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 11 $3 +$2 +67%
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs Fisher College (BO3) - PGL Astana May 11 $7 −$7 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 11 $13 +$7 +55%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $37 +$155 +414%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Apr 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 18 $30 −$30 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 17 $24 +$13 +55%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 17 $2 −$2 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? Apr 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B Apr 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B Apr 14 $19 +$14 +71%
Genius FDV above $500M one day after launch? Apr 14 $72 −$21 -29%
Genius FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 14 $14 −$14 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 13 $10 +$3 +34%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 13 $3 +$2 +70%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 12 $3 $0 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 12 $2 +$1 +32%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 12 $4 −$1 -31%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 12 $5 −$3 -61%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 12 $10 −$6 -55%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 10 $2 +$5 +235%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 08 $4 +$16 +389%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 08 $3 +$10 +335%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Over $3M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Mar 29 $6 −$5 -80%
Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch? Mar 29 $12 −$12 -100%
Over $6M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Mar 29 $30 −$17 -56%
Over $4M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Mar 29 $12 −$8 -65%
Will PARIVISION win the StarLadder Budapest Major 2025? Mar 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Mar 18 $5 −$5 -100%
No airdrop in 2025? Mar 18 $32 −$32 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Team Falcons (BO3) Mar 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FaZe (BO1) Mar 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality (BO3) Mar 18 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Natus Vincere (BO3) Mar 18 $234 −$143 -61%
Will Trump say "Alien" in Corpus Christi on Friday? Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FK Akron Tolyatti win on 2025-10-26? Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Vitality (BO1) Mar 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: Imperial vs Team Falcons (BO1) Mar 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 56% −$347
other 37% −$76
crypto 4% −$105
world 1% +$12
politics 1% −$2
culture 0% −$8
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 30¢ $4 39m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $3 1h
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 12d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 16¢ $19 14d
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven BUY Rico 10¢ $9 22d
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? SELL Yes 72¢ $9 28d
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? BUY Yes 50¢ $6 31d
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? SELL No 51¢ $7 31d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A BUY BC.Game Esports 37¢ $27 32d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage BUY PARIVISION 50¢ $9 32d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage SELL G2 50¢ $6 32d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage SELL PARIVISION 25¢ $3 32d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage BUY G2 76¢ $10 32d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage BUY PARIVISION 42¢ $5 32d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Group St SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $15 32d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Group St BUY Team Falcons 96¢ $15 32d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Group St BUY TheMongolz 67¢ $20 32d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage SELL Spirit 100¢ $5 33d
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? BUY No 30¢ $4 33d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL No 71¢ $17 33d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage BUY Spirit 59¢ $3 33d
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs Fisher College (BO3) - PGL Astana BUY Fisher College 25¢ $7 33d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage SELL 9z 80¢ $1 33d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage SELL 9z 80¢ $1 33d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage SELL 9z 80¢ $2 33d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage SELL 9z 80¢ $3 33d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage BUY 9z 36¢ $3 33d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage SELL 9z 43¢ $6 33d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage SELL 9z 55¢ $8 33d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage BUY 9z 35¢ $10 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-23.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 -63.1% -66.6% 25% 25% -90.0%
≤90d 75 -52.1% -56.6% 17% 16% -63.1%
all 134 -14.9% -23.0% 34% 31% -24.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.0% 31% -24.9%
10% -30.3% 28% -32.1%
15% -37.1% 25% -38.6%
20% -43.2% 21% -44.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.38 · official $8.38 (match) · 359 history records