Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:28:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C3 0xc36d…7ebf crypto 658 markets active 0h ago coverage 28d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 27d only
✗ bot/MM pace (113 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$302 (+1%) realized +$302 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate88%575W / 82L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day112.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$70
7 days−$3
14 days−$82
30 days+$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$65
other 1% $0
tech 0% −$4
sports 0% $0
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (113 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 141 +0.1% -9.5% 91% 1% -9.5%
≤30d 657 -1.0% -10.4% 88% 2% -9.4%
≤90d 657 -1.0% -10.4% 88% 2% -9.4%
all 657 -1.0% -10.4% 88% 2% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover112.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.4% 2% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -19.0% 1% -18.1%
15% -26.8% 0% -26.0%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$8 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$302
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses575 / 82
Open positions1
Markets (closed)657 / 658
History coverage28d ⚠
Avg bet$58
Trades / day112.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 657 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $347 +$3 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $344 +$6 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $347 +$3 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $347 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $347 +$3 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $251 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $347 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $297 +$3 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $297 +$3 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $133 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $273 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $297 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $297 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $297 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $297 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $297 +$3 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $297 +$3 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $297 +$3 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $297 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $45 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $13 −$2 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $27 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $297 +$3 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $297 +$3 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $297 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $297 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $297 +$3 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $297 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $297 +$3 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $297 +$3 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $168 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 12 $248 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 12 $248 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $218 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $90 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $248 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 12 $248 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $105 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $248 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $248 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $248 +$2 +1%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 12 $29 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $396 +$4 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 11 $396 +$4 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $347 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $95 38m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $159 38m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $90 38m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $42 48m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $9 48m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 48m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $4 48m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 48m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $282 48m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $347 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $347 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $7 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $8 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $21 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $8 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $172 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $13 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $42 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $275 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.36 · official $10.36 (match) · 3500 history records