Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T16:57:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc370…22f6 crypto 100 markets active 1h ago coverage 499d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$161 (+2%) realized +$157 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate53%52W / 46L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$636now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 58% +$112
other 17% +$14
crypto 17% +$32
sports 6% +$5
politics 1% −$1
weather 0% $0
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 35 -8.8% -17.5% 20% 0% -7.6%
all 98 -6.3% -15.2% 53% 10% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 10% -7.7%
10% -23.3% 5% -16.5%
15% -30.8% 4% -24.6%
20% -37.5% 3% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×4.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.71 per $1 lost it wins $5.71
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

499d coverage
Net worth$636
Realized+$157
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses52 / 46
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)98 / 100
History coverage499d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 98 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $616 $623 +$7 (+1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 28? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $16 $13 −$3 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $110 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET May 23 $2 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET May 23 $2 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET May 23 $2 $0 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 22 $3,463 +$97 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 22 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 21 $2 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 21 $2 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 21 $3 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 21 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 21 $2 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 21 $2 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 21 $2 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 21 $5 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 21 $2 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 21 $3 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 21 $2 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 21 $2 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 21 $2 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 21 $2 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 21 $2 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 21 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 21 $2 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 21 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 21 $2 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET May 21 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 21 $2 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET May 21 $2 $0 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 21 $720 +$15 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET May 21 $2 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET May 21 $2 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET May 21 $2 $0 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 21 $695 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group A May 21 $45 +$4 +8%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $51 $0 -0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 14 $51 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 23 $39 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Dec 24 $16 −$2 -15%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025? Dec 18 $827 +$9 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 202 Dec 11 $405 +$5 +1%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 09 $22 $0 -0%
Will Alaves win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 30 $22 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet less than 90 times July 11–18? Aug 10 $21 $0 +2%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Jul 11 $21 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 95–109 times May 30–June 6? Jun 15 $21 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025 UEFA Conference League? Jun 01 $2 +$1 +52%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in May? Jun 01 $18 $0 +0%
Will Olaf Scholz be the next Chancellor of Germany? May 08 $1 $0 +0%
Will Alice Weidel be the next Chancellor of Germany? May 08 $2 $0 +0%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? May 08 $2 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 10¢ $18 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $634 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 36d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $236 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 36d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $486 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $636.36 · official $636.36 (match) · 435 history records