Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:38:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc371…fbe1 sports 149 markets active 2h ago coverage 161d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%17W / 132L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 24% +$1
sports 22% −$2
politics 18% −$2
economics 12% −$1
crypto 10% −$1
culture 6% +$1
world 5% $0
tech 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 4 -0.5% -10.0% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 5 -0.5% -10.0% 0% 0% -10.0%
all 149 -0.0% -9.5% 11% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×3.36 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses17 / 132
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)149 / 149
History coverage161d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 149 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 22 $50 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $52 $0 -0%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 05 $54 −$1 -1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 23 $59 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 15 $95 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 19 $175 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 19 $64 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 19 $55 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? Feb 19 $59 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 19 $57 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 19 $119 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 19 $85 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Feb 19 $55 $0 -0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Feb 19 $106 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 19 $61 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 19 $121 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Feb 19 $88 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 19 $124 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 19 $227 $0 -0%
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 Masters tournament? Feb 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 19 $156 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 16 $56 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026? Feb 16 $60 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 16 $181 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 16 $75 $0 -0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of February? Feb 16 $60 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 16 $56 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Feb 16 $43 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 16 $40 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 16 $368 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 16 $184 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 16 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 16 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Feb 16 $57 $0 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? Feb 15 $118 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 15 $123 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 15 $123 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Feb 15 $60 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 15 $61 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 15 $188 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 15 $64 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Feb 15 $63 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 15 $4 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 15 $186 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? Feb 15 $63 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Feb 15 $60 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 14 $62 $0 -1%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 14 $140 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 14 $61 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 14 $58 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $49 1h
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $50 8h
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $52 8d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $52 8d
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 97¢ $53 16d
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $54 16d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 98¢ $59 29d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $59 30d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $59 37d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $60 37d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 97¢ $57 122d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 97¢ $58 122d
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL No 94¢ $6 122d
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 95¢ $55 122d
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 94¢ $6 122d
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 95¢ $0 122d
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 95¢ $55 122d
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $59 122d
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $59 122d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $57 122d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $57 122d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 96¢ $56 122d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 96¢ $56 122d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $58 122d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $58 122d
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 95¢ $55 122d
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 95¢ $55 122d
Will France win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 94¢ $59 122d
Will France win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 95¢ $59 122d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 93¢ $61 122d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 505 history records