Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T14:40:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc376…6850 sports 158 markets active 2h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,938 (-10%) realized −$2,876 · open −$62
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate47%74W / 82L
Whale WR27%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$181per market
Trades / day9.4pace
Fees−$397est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$694now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$176
7 days−$710
14 days−$213
30 days−$3,263
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$2,751
other 3% −$580
crypto 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -15.4% -23.5% 48% 48% -29.3%
≤30d 156 -4.6% -13.7% 47% 45% -20.1%
≤90d 156 -4.6% -13.7% 47% 45% -20.1%
all 156 -4.6% -13.7% 47% 45% -20.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 45% -20.1%
10% -21.9% 40% -27.8%
15% -29.5% 35% -34.8%
20% -36.4% 29% -41.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 27% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -12% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$105 vs −$134 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$694
Realized−$2,876
Unrealized−$62
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses74 / 82
Whale WR (big bets)27%
Est. fees paid−$397
Open positions2
Markets (closed)156 / 158
History coverage25d
Avg bet$181
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 156 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Wimbledon WTA: Elsa Jacquemot vs Naomi Osaka Naomi Osaka 83¢ 86¢ $500 $521 +$21 (+4%)
1st 5 Innings Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5) Chicago White Sox 71¢ 48¢ $256 $173 −$83 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Piracicaba (Doubles): Barbiero/Bullamah vs Britto/Villanueva Jun 27 $7 +$2 +23%
UFC Fight Night: Julius Walker vs. Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev (Light Heavy Jun 27 $149 +$42 +28%
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs WBT (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 27 $6 +$4 +67%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: New Zealand O/U 1.5 Corners Jun 27 $295 +$129 +44%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 26 $153 −$150 -98%
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Yawara Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ Jun 26 $16 −$16 -100%
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs T1 Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Seaso Jun 26 $60 −$60 -100%
Piracicaba: Lucas Da Silva vs Conner Huertas Del Pino Jun 25 $6 +$6 +97%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 25 $3 +$2 +73%
Set Handicap: Kamrowski (-1.5) vs Grzegorzewski (+1.5) Jun 24 $253 −$34 -13%
Plovdiv: Mathys Erhard vs Inaki Montes Jun 24 $2 +$3 +159%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B Jun 23 $422 +$79 +19%
Valorant: Mandatory vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gro Jun 23 $203 −$203 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open (Doubles): Cash/Glasspool vs Cerundolo/Carabelli Jun 23 $304 −$304 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A Jun 23 $5 +$4 +67%
Lexus Eastbourne Open (Doubles): Jurak/Ruzic vs Errani/Paolini Jun 23 $815 −$306 -38%
Set Handicap: Ruse (-1.5) vs Noskova (+1.5) Jun 23 $86 −$86 -100%
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro Jun 23 $404 +$230 +57%
Set 1 Winner: Acosta vs Galarneau Jun 22 $2 +$1 +62%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will IR Tanger vs. RCA Zemamra end in a draw? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Honor of Kings: Royal Never Give Up vs eStar Pro (BO5) - King Pro Leag Jun 22 $12 −$12 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 22 $37 −$37 -100%
Overwatch: Twisted Minds vs 1234 (BO3) - OCS EMEA Stage 2 Group Stage Jun 20 $16 +$4 +21%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $28 +$20 +72%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Epis Jun 20 $15 +$33 +214%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: FORZE Esports vs Cyber Hero (BO5) - BetBoom Jun 19 $7 +$6 +76%
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba (BO3) - United21 Group A Jun 19 $44 +$30 +68%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Jun 18 $355 +$332 +93%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 18 $185 −$185 -100%
Valorant: So:sweet vs Dplus (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $227 −$227 -100%
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Daniel Michalski Jun 16 $353 +$169 +48%
Griekspoor vs. Shimabukuro: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $388 +$112 +29%
Griekspoor vs. Shimabukuro: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $289 +$211 +73%
Poznan: Pedro Boscardin Dias vs Jan Choinski Jun 16 $354 +$177 +50%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs MARKandLARRY (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Parma: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Damir Dzumhur Jun 15 $304 −$304 -100%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $142 +$147 +104%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $49 +$14 +28%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $38 +$19 +49%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Noir Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Gro Jun 14 $55 −$4 -6%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $19 −$19 -100%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs G-Time (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Jun 14 $325 −$23 -7%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $3 +$2 +65%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $3 +$2 +70%
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs Carolina Royal Ravens - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Bratislava: Federico Cina vs Taro Daniel Jun 13 $153 −$153 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $202 +$105 +52%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $507 −$507 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon WTA: Elsa Jacquemot vs Naomi Osaka BUY Naomi Osaka 83¢ $503 1h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: New Zealand O/U 1.5 Corners BUY Over 69¢ $295 40h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Under 27¢ $153 2d
Piracicaba: Lucas Da Silva vs Conner Huertas Del Pino BUY Lucas Da Silva 50¢ $6 3d
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs WBT (BO3) - European Pro League Series BUY Misa Esports 59¢ $6 3d
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Under 57¢ $3 3d
Set Handicap: Kamrowski (-1.5) vs Grzegorzewski (+1.5) BUY Grzegorzewski 57¢ $253 4d
Plovdiv: Mathys Erhard vs Inaki Montes BUY Inaki Montes 38¢ $2 4d
UFC Fight Night: Julius Walker vs. Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev (Light Heavy BUY Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev 78¢ $149 5d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY K27 52¢ $218 5d
Lexus Eastbourne Open (Doubles): Jurak/Ruzic vs Errani/Paolini BUY Errani/Paolini 80¢ $722 5d
Lexus Eastbourne Open (Doubles): Jurak/Ruzic vs Errani/Paolini BUY Errani/Paolini 78¢ $93 5d
Lexus Eastbourne Open (Doubles): Cash/Glasspool vs Cerundolo/Carabelli BUY Cash/Glasspool 60¢ $304 5d
Set Handicap: Ruse (-1.5) vs Noskova (+1.5) BUY Noskova 67¢ $86 6d
Set 1 Winner: Acosta vs Galarneau BUY Galarneau 61¢ $2 6d
Piracicaba (Doubles): Barbiero/Bullamah vs Britto/Villanueva BUY Britto/Villanueva 81¢ $7 6d
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 63¢ $404 7d
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Yawara Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ BUY Yawara Esports 55¢ $16 7d
Overwatch: Twisted Minds vs 1234 (BO3) - OCS EMEA Stage 2 Group Stage BUY Twisted Minds 82¢ $16 7d
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY Sashi Esport 59¢ $5 7d
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner BUY Gentle Mates 58¢ $28 8d
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs T1 Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Seaso BUY T1 Academy 54¢ $60 8d
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Epis BUY ECHO 31¢ $15 8d
Will IR Tanger vs. RCA Zemamra end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 8d
Valorant: Mandatory vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gro BUY AlQadsiah Esports 51¢ $203 9d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 31¢ $37 9d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY Walczaki 34¢ $204 9d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: FORZE Esports vs Cyber Hero (BO5) - BetBoom BUY FORZE Esports 56¢ $7 9d
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Infinite 51¢ $355 10d
Honor of Kings: Royal Never Give Up vs eStar Pro (BO5) - King Pro Leag BUY Royal Never Give Up 46¢ $12 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $694.29 · official $694.29 (match) · 395 history records