Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T17:20:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C3 0xc376…a8e7 sports 1801 markets active 0h ago coverage 236d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 235d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$306 (-1%) realized −$362 · open +$56
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%826W / 998L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day12.3pace
Fees−$432est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$141now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 236d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$1,238
politics 1% −$40
other 1% −$62
world 0% +$25
crypto 0% −$17
economics 0% −$24
tech 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 112 -45.4% -50.6% 25% 24% -64.5%
≤30d 239 -16.1% -24.0% 41% 40% -38.4%
≤90d 1199 -9.1% -17.8% 46% 45% -15.4%
all 1824 -10.3% -18.8% 45% 45% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.8% 45% -16.3%
10% -26.6% 44% -24.3%
15% -33.7% 42% -31.7%
20% -40.2% 37% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$21 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

236d coverage
Net worth$141
Realized−$362
Unrealized+$56
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses826 / 998
Est. fees paid−$432
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1824 / 1801
History coverage236d ⚠
Avg bet$25
Trades / day12.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1824 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Grind Back 54¢ 100¢ $44 $81 +$37 (+84%)
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 1 Winner Power Rangers 77¢ 100¢ $37 $48 +$11 (+31%)
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 0¢ 28¢ $0 $12 +$12 (+0%)
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner Power Rangers 39¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 496 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC 318: Judice vs. Caliari Jun 22 $16 −$16 -100%
US Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Alexandre Muller Jun 22 $16 −$16 -100%
IEM Cologne: 3DMAX vs. G2 Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Dota 2: Heroic vs Execration (BO1) Jun 22 $19 −$19 -100%
UFC: Hokit vs. Uriel Jun 22 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the DC Crime Press Confere Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
League of Legends: JD Gaming vs. Bilibili Gaming Jun 22 $16 −$16 -102%
League of Legends: Bilibili Gaming vs. Weibo Gaming Jun 22 $27 −$27 -100%
League of Legends: Team WE vs. Bilibili Gaming Jun 22 $36 −$36 -100%
Spread: Hawks (-2.5) Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO1) Jun 22 $17 −$17 -100%
League of Legends: FunPlus Phoenix vs. Team WE Jun 22 $68 −$68 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Magomedov vs. Barriault Jun 22 $13 −$13 -100%
League of Legends: Nongshim Red Force vs. T1 Jun 22 $77 −$77 -100%
League of Legends: Nongshim Red Force vs. KT Rolster Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
League of Legends: Bilibili Gaming vs. G2 Jun 22 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Astralis win the FISSURE Playground 1 Tournament? Jun 22 $8 −$8 -100%
NBA Finals G7: Will SGA score 33+ points against the Pacers? Jun 22 $60 −$60 -100%
League of Legends: DN Freecs vs. DRX Jun 22 $44 −$44 -100%
Buccaneers vs. Saints Jun 22 $41 −$41 -100%
EWC Cs2: TYLOO vs. Astralis Jun 22 $34 −$34 -100%
League of Legends: BDS vs. Team Heretics Jun 22 $31 −$31 -100%
NBA Finals G4: Will SGA score 34+ points against the Pacers? Jun 22 $33 −$33 -100%
Terra Wortmann: Bublik vs. Khachanov Jun 22 $27 −$27 -100%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yakutou Brothers (BO1) Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs FlyQuest (BO3) Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Trump say "War" 15+ times during Japan troop visit on October 28? Jun 22 $40 −$40 -100%
UFC: Bouafia vs. Santana Jun 22 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Trump say "Putin" 5+ times during Zelensky events on August 18? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
UFC 319: Susurkaev vs. Nolan Jun 22 $35 −$35 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Invictus Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 22 $16 −$16 -100%
Will TYLOO win the FISSURE Playground 1 Tournament? Jun 22 $7 −$7 -100%
League of Legends: Team WE vs. FunPlus Phoenix Jun 22 $30 −$30 -100%
League of Legends: Fnatic vs. G2 Esports Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
EWC Cs2: G2 vs. Falcons Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Bengals vs. Commanders Jun 22 $176 −$176 -100%
Rahiki vs. Mulumba Jun 22 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Aurora win the 2025 CS2 Esports World Cup Tournament? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will The MongolZ win the BLAST Bounty 2025 Season tournament? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs Team Secret Whales (BO1) Jun 22 $23 −$23 -100%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Execration (BO1) Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Knicks vs. Bucks Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
BLAST.tv Austin Major: Natus Vincere vs. Nemiga Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
League of Legends: JD Gaming vs. Top Esports Jun 22 $55 −$55 -100%
ATP Toronto – Michelsen vs. Khachanov Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Naurdiev vs. Park Jun 22 $12 −$12 -100%
League of Legends: DRX vs. Dplus KIA Jun 22 $53 −$53 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Will Hernandez win by KO/TKO/DQ? Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
League of Legends: OKSavingsBank BRION vs. DN Freecs Jun 22 $60 −$60 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Los Ratones (BO5) Jun 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $20 19m
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner BUY Power Rangers 39¢ $4 1h
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY Grind Back 53¢ $14 1h
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY Grind Back 55¢ $30 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 77¢ $37 2h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY GLYPH 65¢ $39 10h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY GLYPH 60¢ $30 10h
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout BUY Mentality Monster 14¢ $3 12h
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout BUY Mentality Monster 19¢ $3 12h
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout BUY Mentality Monster 23¢ $4 12h
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY Execration 46¢ $20 13h
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY Execration 63¢ $28 13h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 16h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 16h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $11 16h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $24 16h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 98¢ $24 17h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $50 17h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 48¢ $22 17h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $7 18h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 29¢ $8 18h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $22 19h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 58¢ $29 19h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 65¢ $25 21h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla SELL Leviatán Esports 100¢ $81 22h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 23¢ $6 22h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 53¢ $19 23h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 42¢ $9 23h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 4 Winner BUY Paper Rex 57¢ $25 24h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 48¢ $20 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $140.76 · official $141.17 (match) · 3500 history records