Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:01:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
C3 0xc378…c05a politics 116 markets active 1h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,990 (-2%) realized −$1,990 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate15%17W / 97L
Whale WR3%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$719per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$901now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$5
14 days−$16
30 days−$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$423
politics 39% −$36
sports 15% −$1,525
world 3% −$21
culture 2% −$3
tech 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
economics 0% $0
finance 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 24 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 88 -15.4% -23.5% 9% 3% -12.6%
all 114 -9.2% -17.8% 15% 8% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.8% 8% -11.8%
10% -25.7% 8% -20.2%
15% -32.9% 4% -27.9%
20% -39.5% 4% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 3% (≥$1,091) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -17% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$24 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$901
Realized−$1,990
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses17 / 97
Whale WR (big bets)3%
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions2
Markets (closed)114 / 116
History coverage106d
Avg bet$719
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 114 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 99¢ $549 $549 −$0 (-0%)
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $352 $352 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $213 $0 -0%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $240 $0 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $837 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $840 −$1 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 12 $799 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $675 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $689 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $1,405 −$2 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $2,524 −$3 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $763 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $886 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $1,288 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $760 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 04 $55 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 04 $75 $0 +0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $2,003 −$2 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $631 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $100 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $100 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $1,885 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $1,323 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $136 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $208 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $214 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $1,831 −$2 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $226 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 07 $220 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $863 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $224 $0 -0%
Spread: Pistons (-10.5) May 05 $1,057 −$1,057 -100%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $1,147 −$1 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 22 $996 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $1,079 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $1,078 −$1 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $1,146 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $1,144 −$1 -0%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $1,151 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $1,711 −$2 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $1,282 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $526 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $570 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $625 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $633 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $748 −$1 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 11 $2,326 −$2 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $515 −$1 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 10 $1,658 +$1 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 07 $790 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $756 −$1 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $454 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $352 1h
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $212 2h
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $213 4h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $240 6h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $240 8h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $549 27h
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $836 3d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $837 4d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $839 5d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $840 6d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $798 6d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $799 6d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $674 6d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $675 6d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $688 9d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $689 10d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $946 10d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $948 11d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $845 12d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $846 12d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $762 12d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $763 13d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $885 13d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $886 13d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $734 13d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $735 13d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $759 14d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $760 14d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $908 18d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $909 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $901.07 · official $901.07 (match) · 379 history records