Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:45:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C3 0xc378…5e4c sports 189 markets active 2h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$903 (+12%) realized +$929 · open −$26
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate58%105W / 76L
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day13.1pace
Fees−$53est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$433now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$149
7 days+$290
14 days+$727
30 days+$816
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% +$959
crypto 25% +$42
other 11% −$206
weather 0% −$4
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-0.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 +17.7% +6.5% 59% 57% +1.5%
≤30d 181 +9.7% -0.7% 58% 48% +4.1%
≤90d 181 +9.7% -0.7% 58% 48% +4.1%
all 181 +9.7% -0.7% 58% 48% +4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.7% 48% +4.1%
10% -10.2% 45% -5.9%
15% -18.9% 40% -15.0%
20% -26.9% 32% -23.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +19% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$16 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.66 per $1 lost it wins $1.66
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$433
Realized+$929
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses105 / 76
Est. fees paid−$53
Open positions5
Markets (closed)181 / 189
History coverage24d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day13.1
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 181 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 59¢ 55¢ $190 $176 −$14 (-8%)
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Egypt 64¢ 64¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Over 55¢ 55¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? No 39¢ 38¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 TheMongolz 30¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 43 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $133 +$92 +70%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 15 $51 +$39 +76%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $201 −$199 -99%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $370 +$15 +4%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $201 +$159 +79%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $78 −$4 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $1,171 −$138 -12%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $111 −$111 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $44 +$90 +206%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $46 +$48 +105%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $117 −$116 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $41 +$43 +105%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? AND Will Paraguay win o Jun 13 $81 +$48 +59%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $151 +$34 +23%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $34 +$16 +48%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $69 +$41 +60%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $81 +$35 +44%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 11 $13 +$37 +276%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $50 +$84 +168%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 11 $35 −$35 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $15 −$15 -99%
Cattolica: Alexander Vasilev vs Andrea Guerrieri Jun 10 $101 +$58 +57%
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Jun 10 $50 −$2 -5%
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Jeline Vandromme Jun 10 $50 +$23 +46%
Libema Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 10 $15 +$13 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $59 −$56 -96%
Libema Open: James McCabe vs Zizou Bergs Jun 10 $6 −$6 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 10 $16 −$16 -99%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $36 +$9 +24%
UD Almería vs. CD Castellón: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $35 +$26 +73%
Stuttgart Open: Nick Kyrgios vs Corentin Moutet Jun 09 $47 +$33 +70%
Stuttgart Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 09 $20 +$11 +55%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $18 −$18 -99%
Ilkley: Billy Harris vs Clement Chidekh Jun 09 $15 +$59 +384%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Jenson Brooksby Jun 09 $81 +$37 +46%
Libema Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 09 $43 +$35 +80%
China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $276 +$40 +14%
LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 09 $31 +$44 +146%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $57 −$56 -99%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 08 $100 +$31 +31%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 08 $46 −$3 -6%
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lisa Pigato Jun 08 $57 −$56 -99%
HSBC Championships: Qinwen Zheng vs Jaqueline Cristian Jun 08 $41 −$23 -56%
Lyon: Luka Pavlovic vs Daniel Galan Jun 08 $30 −$30 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Martin Landaluce Jun 08 $14 −$14 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $489 +$35 +7%
Indiana Fever vs. New York Liberty Jun 07 $13 +$16 +124%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Egypt 64¢ $101 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 39¢ $61 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 55¢ $101 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 59¢ $192 1h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 30¢ $9 2h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Will Uru BUY 33¢ $13 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 58¢ $101 17h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 73¢ $100 17h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 56¢ $51 17h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $26 19h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 59¢ $31 19h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY No 96¢ $370 22h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 44¢ $74 23h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 55¢ $201 23h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 45¢ $78 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? BUY Up 29¢ $21 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? BUY Up 17¢ $41 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? BUY Up 16¢ $3 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? SELL Down 84¢ $641 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? BUY Down 75¢ $589 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? SELL Up 28¢ $83 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? SELL Up 29¢ $8 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? BUY Up 59¢ $50 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? BUY Up 58¢ $154 25h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 71¢ $101 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? SELL Up 47¢ $76 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? BUY Up 60¢ $31 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? BUY Up 60¢ $72 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? SELL Down 41¢ $61 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? BUY Down 34¢ $55 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $433.06 · official $446.06 · 389 history records