Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:15:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
C3 0xc37e…b8ea crypto 30 markets active 0h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$416 (-8%) realized −$444 · open +$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate62%18W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$168per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$467
7 days−$394
14 days−$320
30 days−$589
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 46% −$248
other 36% −$152
sports 18% −$161
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -13.2% -21.5% 53% 33% -21.8%
≤30d 29 -9.8% -18.4% 62% 34% -18.6%
≤90d 29 -9.8% -18.4% 62% 34% -18.6%
all 29 -9.8% -18.4% 62% 34% -18.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.4% 34% -18.6%
10% -26.2% 21% -26.3%
15% -33.4% 10% -33.5%
20% -39.9% 3% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$111 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$444
Unrealized+$28
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses18 / 11
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage19d
Avg bet$168
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 0¢ 22¢ $0 $28 +$28 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $31 −$2 -8%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $133 −$101 -76%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $101 +$33 +33%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 23 $229 −$229 -100%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Jun 23 $193 −$193 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 23 $91 +$9 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 23 $86 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 23 $76 +$8 +10%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $57 −$52 -91%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $485 −$165 -34%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $165 −$78 -47%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $180 +$241 +134%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $122 +$58 +48%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $187 +$42 +23%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $156 +$31 +20%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $106 +$51 +48%
Nottingham 2: Dane Sweeny vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 16 $82 +$23 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 06 $201 −$14 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 06 $111 −$111 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 05 $301 +$12 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 05 $291 +$14 +5%
Prostejov: Alex Molcan vs Vitaliy Sachko Jun 05 $254 +$39 +15%
Roland Garros ATP (Doubles): Granollers/Zeballos vs Bolelli/Vavassori Jun 05 $213 −$38 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 04 $241 −$241 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 04 $212 +$26 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 04 $193 +$23 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 04 $181 +$10 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 04 $175 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 04 $170 +$8 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $29 1m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 64¢ $29 2m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $31 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 20¢ $31 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $133 4h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 99¢ $134 4h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 74¢ $101 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $91 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $86 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $83 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $76 18h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 18h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 55¢ $57 18h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 8¢ $56 18h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 52¢ $383 18h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 16¢ $87 18h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 29¢ $165 19h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 36¢ $0 19h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 35¢ $264 19h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 19h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $421 21h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $180 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $122 42h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $229 6d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 87¢ $229 6d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $187 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $187 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $156 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $106 7d
Nottingham 2: Dane Sweeny vs Jacob Fearnley SELL Dane Sweeny 48¢ $106 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.73 · official $27.73 (match) · 67 history records