Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:41:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
C3 0xc37f…f7a0 sports 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$14 (+8%) realized +$10 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%5W / 3L
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% +$70
other 31% +$8
crypto 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +26.2% +14.2% 62% 62% +38.1%
≤30d 8 +26.2% +14.2% 62% 62% +38.1%
≤90d 8 +26.2% +14.2% 62% 62% +38.1%
all 8 +26.2% +14.2% 62% 62% +38.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.2% 62% +38.1%
10% +3.3% 62% +24.9%
15% -6.7% 62% +12.8%
20% -15.8% 38% +1.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 72% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +53% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +53% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$2 · ×9.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×16.17 per $1 lost it wins $16.17
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses5 / 3
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 10
History coverage5d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? Yes 16¢ 23¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $37 +$20 +53%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 23 $10 −$4 -37%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $30 +$11 +35%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 23 $32 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score AND Will Morocco win on 2026 Jun 20 $21 +$36 +168%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners AND United Jun 19 $14 +$7 +52%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $10 +$4 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.38 · official $14.38 (match) · 18 history records