Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:45:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc381…c462 other 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 467d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$12 (-2%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate41%14W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 76% −$3
other 10% −$11
crypto 5% −$1
culture 3% +$1
politics 3% $0
weather 2% $0
tech 2% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -1.0% -10.4% 40% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 9 -2.6% -11.9% 44% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 9 -2.6% -11.9% 44% 0% -10.2%
all 34 -4.7% -13.7% 41% 3% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 3% -11.7%
10% -22.0% 0% -20.2%
15% -29.5% 0% -27.9%
20% -36.4% 0% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

467d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses14 / 20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage467d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $39 $39 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $47 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $55 −$2 -3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $56 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $20 −$1 -4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $74 +$1 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $47 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $35 +$3 +9%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $17 −$5 -27%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $16 $0 +0%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 17 $6 +$1 +17%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 50,000-100,000 betwee Aug 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 Belgian Grand Prix? Jul 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 26 $5 $0 -0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jul 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 25 $12 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jul 24 $9 $0 -1%
Will GPT-5 be released by December 31? Jul 24 $5 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 08 $4 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Jul 07 $2 $0 +1%
Will Fluminense win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15 Jul 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 06 $1 $0 -12%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 05 $4 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jul 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will Walmart buy TikTok? Jun 26 $6 $0 +4%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 24 $1 $0 +1%
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $1 $0 +4%
Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21? Mar 19 $15 −$7 -48%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $89000 and $91000 on Mar 14? Mar 15 $14 $0 +2%
Solana above $145 on March 14? Mar 13 $19 −$1 -5%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20-1.24ºC in February 20 Mar 12 $16 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $39 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $47 44h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $47 46h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $6 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $12 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $8 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $21 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 27¢ $9 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 27¢ $1 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 27¢ $9 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 27¢ $1 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 28¢ $20 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $47 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $49 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $44 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $5 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $49 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 84¢ $6 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 84¢ $43 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $48 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 25¢ $31 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 24¢ $30 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $35 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $20 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $15 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $47 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $47 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 49¢ $38 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.70 · official $38.70 (match) · 110 history records