Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T13:27:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc381…a661 world 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 104d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$552 (-0%) realized +$1,049 · open −$1,601
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate62%20W / 12L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5,114per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$66est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$19,453now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 104d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 83% +$5,381
other 10% +$235
finance 3% −$2,272
tech 3% −$4,523
sports 1% −$2,195
politics 0% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -41.8% -47.3% 50% 0% -38.1%
≤30d 7 -19.2% -26.9% 57% 29% -7.5%
≤90d 29 -23.5% -30.8% 59% 10% -10.7%
all 32 -2.9% -12.1% 62% 19% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.1% 19% -10.7%
10% ← realistic here -20.5% 9% -19.2%
15% -28.2% 9% -27.0%
20% -35.3% 6% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$2,678) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +33% → late -39% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
12.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$482 vs −$1,141 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$19,453
Realized+$1,049
Unrealized−$1,601
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses20 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$66
Open positions3
Markets (closed)32 / 35
History coverage104d
Avg bet$5,114
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 93¢ 86¢ $20,915 $19,306 −$1,609 (-8%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? No 93¢ 99¢ $134 $143 +$9 (+6%)
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? No 19¢ 15¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 25 $2,799 −$2,377 -85%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 19 $4,525 +$60 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 08 $14 +$7 +48%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $230 −$30 -13%
Jimmy Lai released by June 30? Jun 01 $16,860 +$409 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 31 $29,406 +$3,313 +11%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 30 $175 −$175 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 26 $9 −$9 -100%
Will AI be charged with a crime before 2027? May 26 $14 +$2 +12%
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a success May 22 $2,740 −$2,678 -98%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode? May 22 $1,896 −$1,845 -97%
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy bo May 22 $15 $0 -1%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 21 $21 −$20 -96%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 12 $12,514 +$713 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 06 $3,622 $0 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 26 $23,022 −$2,076 -9%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 24 $2,195 −$2,195 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 24 $50,582 +$4,977 +10%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 22 $1,882 +$34 +2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026? Apr 21 $83 +$5 +6%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 17 $1,640 +$17 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 17 $788 +$5 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 16 $196 +$1 +1%
Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections Apr 12 $6 $0 +7%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? Apr 08 $225 +$7 +3%
Will Trump say "Unlimited Ammunition" this week? (April 5) Apr 06 $6 $0 +0%
Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on April 2? Apr 02 $47 +$1 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of March? Apr 01 $1,000 +$13 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Apr 01 $1,300 +$49 +4%
Will Trump say "Transgender" during Cabinet meeting on March 26? Mar 27 $3 +$5 +157%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? Mar 24 $115 +$19 +17%
Will Trump say "Cookie" during trophy presentation? Mar 20 $1 +$4 +415%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 90¢ $4,299 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 90¢ $81 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 90¢ $26 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 90¢ $486 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 90¢ $1,810 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 90¢ $90 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 90¢ $82 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 90¢ $83 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 90¢ $83 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 90¢ $83 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 90¢ $83 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 90¢ $62 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 91¢ $83 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 90¢ $25 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 90¢ $83 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 91¢ $83 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 90¢ $17 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 91¢ $88 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 90¢ $32 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 90¢ $83 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 91¢ $1,579 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 91¢ $23 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 91¢ $1,159 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 92¢ $49 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 92¢ $84 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 92¢ $84 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 92¢ $84 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 92¢ $84 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 92¢ $84 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 92¢ $84 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19,452.60 · official $19,452.60 (match) · 635 history records