Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:13:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc383…734b crypto 99 markets active 2d ago coverage 261d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,944 (-60%) realized −$1,944 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate27%27W / 72L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 261d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% −$2,090
sports 13% +$96
other 2% +$8
politics 1% −$17
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-32.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 99 -25.3% -32.5% 27% 25% -66.9%
≤30d 99 -25.3% -32.5% 27% 25% -66.9%
≤90d 99 -25.3% -32.5% 27% 25% -66.9%
all 99 -25.3% -32.5% 27% 25% -66.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.5% 25% -66.9%
10% -38.9% 24% -70.0%
15% -44.8% 17% -72.9%
20% -50.2% 13% -75.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -63% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -63% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -52% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$34 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

261d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,944
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses27 / 72
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)99 / 99
History coverage261d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 99 Trades
no open positions (49 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $398 +$103 +26%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 18 $17 +$4 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$10 +95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9AM ET Jun 18 $18 −$17 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9AM ET Jun 18 $46 −$43 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 18 $34 −$32 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 18 $18 −$17 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$2 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 18 $9 −$3 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 18 $12 +$5 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET Jun 17 $27 +$55 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $28 −$26 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 17 $19 −$18 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -95%
Yoane Wissa: 1+ goals Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Rúben Neves: 1+ goals Jun 17 $46 +$22 +48%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$6 -55%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$8 -76%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $11 +$9 +90%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $13 −$12 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$15 -57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$9 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $9 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$2 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7PM ET Jun 16 $16 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6PM ET Jun 16 $41 +$37 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$6 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 79¢ $398 41h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $3 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $3 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $19 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $3 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $10 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Down 71¢ $20 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $10 45h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9AM ET BUY Up 0¢ $3 45h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 45h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9AM ET BUY Up 0¢ $2 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 0¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 0¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $3 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $3 45h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 45h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $3 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $2 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $2 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $2 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 309 history records