Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:39:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc384…ec9e crypto 616 markets active 0h ago coverage 405d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$528 (-17%) realized −$528 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate38%237W / 379L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$5
14 days−$44
30 days−$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 58% −$134
other 21% −$91
world 10% −$39
economics 6% −$185
politics 4% −$110
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -21.3% -28.8% 45% 40% -29.3%
≤30d 98 -25.7% -32.8% 37% 34% -37.3%
≤90d 546 -6.0% -14.9% 42% 38% -20.8%
all 616 -8.1% -16.8% 38% 34% -26.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 34% -26.2%
10% -24.8% 31% -33.3%
15% -32.1% 29% -39.7%
20% -38.7% 27% -45.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

405d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$528
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses237 / 379
Open positions0
Markets (closed)616 / 616
History coverage405d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 616 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$2 +200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 06 $1 +$2 +162%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 06 $1 +$1 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 06 $1 +$1 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 06 $2 +$5 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 06 $1 +$1 +86%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 05 $2 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +17%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 05 $2 +$2 +101%
XRP Up or Down - June 4, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 04 $2 +$1 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 04 $2 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +31%
XRP Up or Down - June 4, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 04 $2 +$4 +160%
XRP Up or Down - June 4, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 04 $1 +$1 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 04 $1 +$1 +53%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 04 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 04 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 03 $1 +$1 +91%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 02 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 2, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $1 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 56¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3058 history records