Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:13:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C3 0xc387…5a97 sports 258 markets active 1h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$24,339 (-7%) realized −$22,147 · open −$2,192
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate49%124W / 131L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,277per market
Trades / day27.6pace
Fees−$4,717est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1,493now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,707
7 days−$4,094
14 days−$9,847
30 days−$26,742
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$29,241
other 1% +$311
crypto 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 -13.6% -21.9% 49% 45% -14.6%
≤30d 255 +1.4% -8.2% 49% 46% -17.0%
≤90d 255 +1.4% -8.2% 49% 46% -17.0%
all 255 +1.4% -8.2% 49% 46% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.6 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.2% 46% -17.0%
10% -17.0% 41% -25.0%
15% ← realistic here -25.0% 33% -32.2%
20% -32.4% 23% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$1,445) neutral
Persistence
early -1% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$598 vs −$770 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$1,493
Realized−$22,147
Unrealized−$2,192
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses124 / 131
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$4,717
Open positions3
Markets (closed)255 / 258
History coverage25d
Avg bet$1,277
Trades / day27.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 255 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner T1 Academy 57¢ 48¢ $1,059 $876 −$182 (-17%)
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova Elise Mertens 66¢ 42¢ $978 $615 −$363 (-37%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner KT Rolster Challengers 50¢ 0¢ $1,648 $2 −$1,646 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 90 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $1,420 +$1,241 +87%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $4,282 +$60 +1%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $2,297 −$27 -1%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,979 +$480 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,322 +$659 +50%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,353 −$827 -61%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $1,017 +$1,230 +121%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $721 +$798 +111%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $509 +$653 +128%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,210 −$1,191 -98%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $578 +$632 +109%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $693 −$683 -99%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $847 −$836 -99%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $812 −$800 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $727 +$935 +129%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $1,089 +$123 +11%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $618 +$215 +35%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $712 −$612 -86%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,458 −$1,445 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,018 −$994 -98%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $1,013 +$719 +71%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,012 +$654 +65%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $713 −$200 -28%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P Jun 13 $508 +$628 +124%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $306 +$589 +192%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $110 −$108 -98%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Hannah Klugman vs Anastasia Zakharova Jun 13 $438 −$430 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $1,372 −$933 -68%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $2,010 −$1,369 -68%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $2,015 +$348 +17%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,968 +$442 +22%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $1,845 +$123 +7%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 12 $1,052 +$792 +75%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $1,217 −$1,200 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $2,868 −$262 -9%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $1,301 +$1,233 +95%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $1,353 −$1,177 -87%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever Jun 12 $285 −$233 -82%
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Nick Hardt Jun 11 $532 −$521 -98%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali Jun 11 $611 −$600 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -95%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $2,452 −$974 -40%
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Julia Grabher Jun 11 $1,151 +$315 +27%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $1,041 +$111 +11%
LoL: Partizan Sangal vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 11 $993 −$980 -99%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $705 +$289 +41%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $510 −$500 -98%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 11 $1,095 +$121 +11%
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $1,276 +$576 +45%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $759 −$99 -13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Elise Mertens 66¢ $988 57m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 50¢ $658 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 49¢ $1,015 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $2,661 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 57¢ $1,072 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 53¢ $203 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 52¢ $203 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 53¢ $1,014 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $1,464 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 58¢ $807 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 77¢ $1,007 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 63¢ $1,011 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 44¢ $663 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 66¢ $1,010 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $1,179 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 62¢ $1,409 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 54¢ $240 3h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 54¢ $1,014 3h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 70¢ $830 3h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 42¢ $1,091 3h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 51¢ $454 3h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 57¢ $1,013 3h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $1,979 12h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,980 12h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 27h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $1,319 27h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 26¢ $526 35h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $343 36h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $1,010 36h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner SELL Galions 100¢ $2,246 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,493.03 · official $1,493.03 (match) · 694 history records